Sunday Night Football sees the Jets — with a recently changed coaching setup and a new wideout — travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers, who have just made a change at quarterback. Amid the change, we have some player props to tackle.
Let's dive into my Jets vs. Steelers props for Sunday Night Football.
Sam Farley's Jets vs. Steelers Player Props
- Najee Harris Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-113, bet365)
- Breece Hall Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)
- Breece Hall Over 3.5 Receptions (-148, Caesars)
- Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown (+160, BetMGM)
- Garrett Wilson Over 4.5 Receptions (-115, bet365)
Najee Harris Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Najee Harris comes into this game against the Jets after rushing for 106 yards against the Raiders. That was the first time he hit 100 yards in a game this season, and it will give him hope that he can continue to improve as the season continues. He averaged 7.6 yards per carry, far higher than his season average of 3.9.
We know that the Jets are far better against the run than the Raiders, but we also need to factor in the quarterback switch from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson, which is all but confirmed.
Last week, Fields had 11 rushing attempts, only three less than Harris, and had averaged over nine per game. The arrival of Wilson means more carries for Harris and we might see him get back to 20+ carries. That sort of elite usage makes covering a modest rushing total of 51.5 yards far easier.
Breece Hall Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The Steelers have impressed against the run this season, with only three teams giving up fewer yards along the ground. Likewise, 62.5 rushing yards is a line that Breece Hall has covered just once in six games. That might make you ask why we’re backing the Jets’ RB to hit the Over again today, just as he did last week, and that’s the key.
Last week was the first game of the new-look Jets with Jeff Ulbrich as HC and Todd Downing calling plays. One thing was notable: the running back room was heavily led by Hall and far less of a committee than it was under Nathaniel Hackett.
Hall saw a season-high 18 carries for 113 yards, whereas Braelon Allen got just three carries, his lowest number since the opening week of the season. If Hall continues to see volume, then the quality of the opposition won’t matter. Downing is calling better plays and has increased Hall’s usage; the yards should take care of themselves.
Breece Hall Over 3.5 Receptions (-148)
Even before the coaching changes in New York, we were still seeing Hall get the bulk of the work in the passing game and that didn’t change, with Hall hauling in six targets to Allen’s two. Hall caught five passes last time out, tied for his second most of the season and has averaged 4.3 receptions per game.
The Steelers haven’t been great at stopping running backs in the passing game, where they’ve given up an average of 4.8 receptions per game for an average of 7.4 yards per catch. Hall has excellent hands and Downing is going to want to get him into space so that he can show off his burst and elusiveness.
Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown (+160)
It’s crazy how hamstring injuries clear up so quickly after a trade! It’s probably safe to say that Davante Adams won’t be feeling any lingering effects from that "injury." He’s now been reunited with Aaron Rodgers and a quarterback who, despite his decline, is still far better than what he’s been playing with in Las Vegas.
The last time these two played together, Adams was averaging 10 targets per game and caught 11 touchdowns, a downgrade on the 20 that he caught the season before. Neither of these guys are the players that they were in 2021, but we do know that Rodgers trusts his guys, meaning that we are about to see a lot of red zone looks for Adams.
Garrett Wilson Over 4.5 Receptions (-115)
The common train of thought is that the arrival of Davante Adams is bad news for Garrett Wilson and while the days of 23 targets in a game might be gone, it could be beneficial overall. If anything, we’re likely to see Allen Lazard and the other receivers miss out on targets.
Wilson’s reception line for Sunday Night Football sits at 4.5, and it’s a number that he’s covered in all but one game, a tough battle against one of the best passing defenses in the league, the Tennessee Titans, in which he had four. He’s averaged over 11 targets per game and has a low of six. Even with Adams eating into his workload slightly, we’re likely to see Wilson cover here.
