Since gambling has existed, the idea of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an NFL parlay tonight for Jets vs. Texans.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate given the tangled web of correlation between each leg. However, they are fun. And just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 or better odds to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Thursday Night Football parlay built at FanDuel.
Jets vs. Texans Parlay
- Under 42.5 (-115)
- Braelon Allen Over 20.5 Rush Yards (-113)
- Joe Mixon First TD (+450)
Full Jets vs. Texans Parlay Odds: +1812| $10 Bet Wins $181.20
Under 42.5 (-115)
One of the reasons I decided to build this parlay at FanDuel is its line on the under. At 42.5, they're one-half point ahead of most books in the market. That's a relatively important number since 42 represents six touchdowns/PATs.
The under is by far my favorite bet in this game. I have zero faith in the 2018 Packers offense that's now wearing Jets jerseys since it only scored 22 points against a 30th-ranked Patriots defense.
The addition of Davante Adams helps a bit, but it's a short week and this offense still needs time to come together. The Jets also face a tough Texans defense that ranks second in DVOA and third in adjusted sack rate. The combined adjusted sack rates of both teams are actually solidly above league average this week, so it could be a tough time for both passing attacks.
The Texans offense down to just one of their original trio of wide receivers, with Stefon Diggs joining Nico Collins on injured reserve. New York should be able to shift coverage to limit Tank Dell, and the Texans passing attack is fairly thin behind that.
Joe Mixon and the Texans ground game is the one spot that projects well offensively, but rushing obviously takes more time off the clock and shortens the game. Both teams play at a below-average pace anyway, and Houston's league-leading time of possession should limit the number of drives here, as well.
Braelon Allen Over 20.5 Rush Yards (-113)
The Jets backfield split has been extremely unpredictable this season. Overall, it's been a roughly 70/30 split in favor of Breece Hall, but there's a ton of weekly variance.
Allen saw 12 carries last week in a close game against the Patriots, just four fewer than Hall. Allen has cleared this line in both Jets wins this season and two of the three losses by three or fewer points.
With the Jets slightly favored at home, odds are we get the kind of game script that favors Allen seeing an increased workload. The short rest between games could also shift things slightly in his favor, and he saw 11 carries for 55 yards the last time the Jets played on Thursday night.
The over on Allen's rushing attempts is the top prop in our NFL Props Tool this week, but that's unfortunately not available in SGPs. If betting this straight I'd prefer the over 5.5 attempts line but for the sake of the parlay, the over on yards works as a reasonable proxy.
Joe Mixon First TD (+450)
As mentioned above, the one offensive bright spot in this game might be the Texans run game. The offensive line has an above-average matchup on the ground, and Houston is limited at wide receiver.
The latter point should lead to an increased workload for Mixon in the passing game since he's one of the few healthy starters on Houston's offense. He saw six targets last week, largely due to the injury to Diggs. In Mixon's three games since returning from injury, he's scored five total touchdowns.
The safer pick here would obviously be Mixon's Anytime TD Scorer odds of -125, which brings the parlay to +690. I'll be sprinkling on that version of this bet but also taking a bigger swing on the first touchdown line.
That's at +450 odds, and brings the parlay all the way up to +1812 — with FanDuel offering the best odds in the market by a decent margin
Full Jets vs. Texans Parlay Odds: +1812| $10 Bet Wins $181.20
