Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited whether with the spread and total or with player props. This also applies for the Anytime Touchdown market. Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market, and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
Below, I have three Jets vs. Vikings player props for the first NFL London game of 2024.
Jets vs. Vikings Anytime Touchdown Scorers
- Allen Lazard (+320)
- Ty Conklin (+450)
- Sprinkle on Sam Darnold (+600)
Sam Darnold
Anytime Touchdown (+600)
We’re going to find out in this game if QB Sam Darnold is a fluke or if he’s able to continue to make great decisions against good defenses. In four games, he’s shredded every secondary he’s played against, with two of them ranking in the top 10 in pass defense DVOA (49ers, Texans). Now, the Jets do currently rank outside of the top 10 in that category, but they’ve only allowed 128 pass yards per game (ranked second), a 61% completion rate (ranked fourth), and two passing touchdowns.
Where the Jets have gotten “exposed” so far is in the run game, ranking 27th in defensive DVOA to go with 126 rush yards per game. By that logic, Vikings RB Aaron Jones likely has the biggest edge to score a TD at +110, but my radar is now set on Darnold to run one in at +600. He hasn’t scored yet this year and while Jones has 12 red-zone carries so far, it’s very possible he gets stoned at the goal line and then Darnold sneaks it in on a crucial third down. We’ve seen Darnold use his legs in the past for rushing TDs, and this feels like a great matchup to try again.
Allen Lazard
Anytime Touchdown (+320)
When it comes to the Jets TD scorers, the list always seems to start with WR Garrett Wilson — but at +190, I’m not in love with it because the Rodgers-Wilson connection hasn’t shown promise. Instead, let’s focus again on WR2 Allen Lazard and TE Tyler Conklin.
Both are still playing over 85% of snaps, and the Vikings rank 21st in DVOA to WR2 as opposed to third in DVOA vs. WR1. Lazard saw eight targets last week and should still be a decent TD option to back at +310.
Ty Conklin
Anytime Touchdown (+450)
As for Conklin, this is a bet that he finally sees the end zone because he’s seen 14 targets over the last two games and the majority of his targets came when facing zone coverages. The Vikings play zone at the second-highest rate in NFL and have also had some difficulty containing tight ends. They conceded a TD to Tucker Kraft in Week 4 and a one to George Kittle in Week 2. There are only five teams that have given up two TDs to tight ends this season and the Vikings are one of them.
