Championship Sunday has arrived! After a thrilling 2021 season, we are left with the third installment of the San Francisco 49ers vs. the Los Angeles Rams — this time for the NFC Championship.
San Francisco's offense elicits very polarizing opinions from the public, especially at the quarterback position. Is Jimmy Garoppolo a hindrance to a run-heavy 49ers attack, or is he an under-appreciated winner who can make big plays when called upon?
With these two teams having faced each other twice during the regular season, I expect some changes in the offense to open the door for prop bet value.
Find a complete breakdown of the game here and my player prop picks for the Rams here.
What are player props? They're bets on a player's statistical outcome. Learn more here.
NFL Player Props: 49ers
George Kittle Under 52.5 Rec Yards (-110) at DraftKings
The Rams know they need to limit Garoppolo's weapons, which starts with the athletic San Francisco tight end. George Kittle was very "boom or bust" this season, tallying five games with 92 or more receiving yards, and nine games of 50 or fewer receiving yards.
In their first matchup, Kittle saw seven targets and five receptions, but only reached 50 total receiving yards. Garoppolo's 7.4 air yards per attempt ranked just 26th among all signal callers this season. He peppers the short to intermediate area, limiting the big throws down the field.
We project Kittle for 4.8 receptions, but only 51.9 receiving yards on our FantasyLabs Player Prop Tool. I'm backing the Rams to prioritize stifling coverage on the 49ers' star tight end.
Jimmy Garoppolo Over 20.5 Com (+100) at BetMGM
This is an opportunity to capitalize on the overwhelming Jimmy Garoppolo hate. He is coming off frigid conditions at Lambeau Field last Sunday, only completing 11 of 19 passes in the 49ers' 13-10 win.
With much better weather in Los Angeles and a Rams defense laser-focused on stopping the run, I project Garoppolo to hit the 21 completion mark. He beat this number in three of the last four regular-season games, including their Week 18 win at Los Angeles.
If San Francisco dominates on the ground, as they did in their 31-10 win earlier in the season, Garoppolo will likely fall short of this number. However, I project a closer game, with San Francisco being forced to rely on Garoppolo's passing ability more than ever.
We project Garoppolo for around 30 passing attempts, which puts him right at this number based on his 68.3% completion percentage. With the +100 odds, it's worth the risk.
Elijah Mitchell Under 70.5 Rush Yards (-110) at PointsBet
Lost in all the attention toward Elijah Mitchell's rushing success is that the 49ers deploys a variety of running backs. Mitchell tallied 17 rushing attempts last week's win over Green Bay, but teammate Deebo Samuel also tallied 10 attempts. Even fullback Kyle Juszczyk tallied two attempts.
This number is affected by Mitchell's 27 carries in their wild-card win at Dallas. However, that was in a game San Francisco led from start to finish, against a run defense that is far worse than the Rams.
Los Angeles has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, including the ninth-fewest rushing yards. I don't see how the 49ers see anywhere near the amount of positive game script they saw in Dallas. Mitchell could also lose goal-line work to Jeff Wilson Jr, who could be active on Sunday after an ankle injury.
If San Francisco falls behind, Mitchell doesn't approach this number. I'll make a contrarian bet, and take the under on Mitchell's rushing total on PointsBet.
Kyle Juszczyk Over 1.5 Rec (+125) at DraftKings
There is simply no better way to kick off our NFC Championship Game prop article than with a fullback receiving prop!
Kyle Juszczyk is an incredible athlete with significant ability in the receiving game. He has six games this year with three or more targets, and has beaten this number in 10 of 17 games this season. His receptions (obviously) are usually close to the line of scrimmage, equating to a high catch rate. If Juszczyk simply gets two targets, he likely hits this prop at fantastic odds.
The Rams were middle of the league (14th) in receptions allowed to opposing running backs, but will be focused on stopping fellow rushers Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel. In his only game against the Rams this season, Juszczyk caught his only target for six receiving yards.
Juszczyk has seen an increase in his snap share throughout the season, tallying 50% or higher in the last four regular-season games.
These odds are too tempting to pass up, especially in the unpredictable third matchup with Los Angeles.
