Jimmy Garoppolo Player Prop: Rams vs 49ers Monday Night Football Pick

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Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Attempts

The 49ers (1-2) host the Rams (2-1) on Monday Night Football in what should be an epic rematch of last season's NFC Championship Game. After shaking off the rust in an ugly loss to the Broncos in Week 3, Jimmy Garoppolo is poised to bounce back with eight days of preparation.

Last week, the 49ers threw on first down 69.23% of the time, ranking sixth-most among all teams. This trend should continue since running on the Rams will be tough.

Opposing running backs have not succeeded, averaging only 3.65 yards per attempt, which is eighth-fewest in the league. According to Football Outsiders, the Rams currently have the second-best rush defense DVOA (with the 49ers first).

In addition, San Francisco is without star LT Trent Williams. He is the team's best offensive tackle, and his 78.1 run-blocking grade ranks eighth for his position. The inability to create effective rushing lanes and potential Aaron Donald-led rushes should force Garoppolo to throw.

You know who else will get the 49ers to keep the ball in the air? Middle linebacker Bobby Wagner, who signed with Los Angeles in the offseason. Between him and Donald up the middle, the Rams present a stout run defense.

Last week, Kyler Murray threw the ball 55 (!) times against the Rams. Fourteen of the previous 17 quarterbacks to face Los Angeles have attempted at least 29 passes dating back to last season. Garoppolo was one of the three who did not, but that was only because the 49ers took control early with a 21-7 lead in the first quarter.

Unlike Trey Lance, there will be no worry of designed runs for Garoppolo. Combined with the incoming pass-rush pressure and difficulty establishing drives, I have Jimmy GQ throwing the ball at least 29 times in what should be a competitive game.