If you’re looking for an edge when it comes to NFL player prop bets, look no further than our Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner’s projections in our Player Props Tool on Action Labs.
While the market on many of the available prop bets is close, there are a couple of value plays that stand out this week on the Cincinnati Bengals' side of this AFC Championship Game against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Find a complete breakdown of the game here and my favorite Chiefs player props here.
What are NFL player props? They're bets on a player's statistical outcome. Learn more here.
Bengals NFL Props
C.J. Uzomah Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
While the Bengals have a myriad of weapons at their disposal, C.J. Uzomah is one player who has taken a massive leap during this recent playoff run. Over the past two weeks, Uzomah is averaging seven targets, 6.5 receptions and 67.5 receiving yards per game — a substantial jump over his season average of 3.1 receptions and 30.8 yards per contest.
This week, the 7- to 7.5-point spread and substantial 54.5-point total (check real-time NFL odds here) imply that oddsmakers expect the Bengals to be playing from behind in what could easily turn into a shootout between two potent offenses.
Not only has Uzomah seen a rapid rise in usage during this playoff run, but he — along with Joe Mixon — has become a safety valve for quarterback Joe Burrow. This role has become especially important given the susceptibility of this offensive line to quarterback pressure and sacks.
Per PFF’s WR/TE Matchup Tool, Uzomah also has a good matchup on Sunday. He’ll have an 18% matchup advantage against his primary defenders in this one, which should allow for even more open looks over the middle for the 28-year-old tight end.
The current line of 35.5 receiving yards on DraftKings is a bit soft given his recent usage pattern and the projected game script. I’m comfortable playing this one up to 39.5 yards if the line were to shift prior to kickoff.
Joe Burrow Over 286.5 Passing Yards (DraftKings)
Joe Burrow’s prowess in the passing game has been one of the main reasons the Bengals currently find themselves competing for a trip to the Super Bowl on Sunday. Not only has his passing production and efficiency increased over the past four weeks compared to earlier in the season, he’s also been able to produce in big situations late in games as well.
This week, expect even more of Burrow’s arm in a high-total game that the Bengals are expected to be trailing throughout. Given the 7- to 7.5-point spread and the high 54.5-point total, it’s likely the Chiefs will force the Bengals into a game script similar to their Week 17 matchup when Burrow threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns.
While the Chiefs pass defense had shown some improvement late in the season, last week’s performance against the Bills — highlighted by Josh Allen’s 329-yard, four-touchdown showing — proved that this 23rd-ranked Chiefs Pass DVOA (per Football Outsiders) is still very susceptible to big performances from opposing quarterbacks. Given what Burrow did against this unit just a few weeks ago, it’s clear he’ll have ample opportunity to exceed 300 yards for the third game in a row.
At a current total of 286.5 passing yards, I’m confidently on the over here. While I do think he once again surpasses the 300-yard mark, I'd conservatively play this one up to 294.5 yards.
Joe Mixon Over 4.5 Receptions (DraftKings)
During their current playoff run, the Bengals have fully embraced a pass-first approach en route to their first AFC Championship Game since the 1988 NFL season.
While they only averaged a 58.3% pass rate during the regular season (19th-highest), that numbered jumped up to 65.3% over the last three games and led to wins against the Las Vegas Raiders and the top-seeded TennesseeTitans.
This approach has helped all of Burrow’s pass-catching options, including running back Joe Mixon. Over the last four games, Mixon is averaging 6.5 targets, 5.8 receptions and 47 yards per game out of the backfield. While he’s always been a reliable receiving back, he’s become even more vital for Burrow over the past few weeks.
As highlighted above, oddsmakers are pegging this game as a high-scoring affair where the Bengals are likely to be trailing. That means a ton of Joe Burrow and the passing game, which should also include a heavy dose of Mixon out of the backfield.
Mixon has exceeded this total in three of his last four games — including a seven-catch outing against this same Chiefs defense just three weeks ago. This game should be much of the same.
This prop is currently being offered at +135, but I would play it at the current number all the way down -110 if necessary.
