As NFL teams advance deeper in the playoffs, football card investors are thinking about what futures they want to put their money into. Value depends on current prices and the potential of that player to go far.
As usual, the focus is on the quarterbacks. But it's not a simple game.
Patrick Mahomes prices, for example, factored in a Super Bowl win last year. When he didn't win, the market came down significantly. And despite the Rams looking good — +700 to win the Super Bowl — there has been very little investment in Matthew Stafford.
So who is the market speculating the most on?
Even though his prices have risen significantly since his 525-yard passing game against the Las Vegas Raiders three weeks ago, Joe Burrow is the most investable QB at this point, according to marketplace data.
You can see it from the relatively lower end cards that are trading more frequently. Burrow's 2020 Rookie Orange Prizm (#309) could be had for $500 in a PSA 10 in late October. It's now $850 for that card, which is even selling raw for $300.
"I realize it's a long shot (+1200), but if Burrow makes the Super Bowl, he's going to shoot up more," said Rick Probstein, eBay's largest trading card seller. "If he wins the Super Bowl, he's going to Mahomes-type levels."
"The bottom line is Burrow is still affordable," said Dave Amerman, auctions director for Goldin Co., which has sold the most expensive Burrow cards, including one card that sold for $96,000 earlier this month and the all-time record card, a 2020 Panini Contenders Super Bowl Ticket card, which sold for $185,730 in May 2021.
Probstein confirms that volume on Stafford is virtually non-existent. "That's because I don't think if the Rams win the Super Bowl, people are going to give credit to him. It will be Aaron Donald or Von Miller or Cooper Kupp or Odell Beckham Jr."
Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are obviously already heavily invested in, but the thinking among insiders is that they both need titles to add to their lore and price. Brady wasn't expected to win another one last year and got a bump.
Both Amerman and Probstein agree that Rodgers, whose Packers are now the favorite to win the Super Bowl at most books, needs the Super Bowl.
"If he wins the Super Bowl, he has two titles and can enter the conversation as one of the best ever," Probstein said.
