Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will host the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football in extremely inclement conditions.
Winds could approach as high as 47 miles per hour. The forecast also says the temperature will be in the mid-20s by game-time. And there's a chance of rain.
Roughly 55% of NFL games played in winds 10 mph or higher have gone under since 2003, according to Action Labs.
It's looking like there'll be at least an average of 26 mph gusts for this contest.
And the total has plummeted to 41 from its opening mark of 44 as a result.
These factors have drastically affected Josh Allen's passing yard props. But, his rushing yard props remain popular in part due to the weather conditions.
Below is a list of his player props for Monday Night Football. The sportsbook offering the best value is in parentheses.
Josh Allen Most Valuable Rushing Player Props
- Rushing yards over: 35.5, -110 (FanDuel)
- Rushing yards under: 35.5, -110 (BetMGM, FanDuel)
- Rushing attempts over: 7.5, -105 (PointsBet)
- Rushing attempts under: 7.5, -118 (BetRivers)
Allen has rushed for more than 35.5 yards in six out of 11 games this season. That rate implies odds of about -120. As aforementioned, the weather will likely force Allen to tuck it and run more often than he'd normally like. Plus, the Patriots have the No. 2 pass defense in the league, which may force Allen through all his progressions a little more than normal. There's value on the over for both rushing yards and rushing attempts.
Josh Allen Most Valuable Passing Player Props
- Passing yards over: 230.5, -115 (PointsBet)
- Passing yards under: 237.5, -115 (DraftKings, BetMGM)
- Passing touchdowns over: 1.5, -112 (BetRivers)
- Passing touchdowns under: 1.5, -113 (FanDuel)
- Interceptions over: 0.5, -130 (DraftKings, BetRivers, FanDuel)
- Interceptions under: 0.5, +100 (DraftKings, BetRivers)
- Pass attempts over: 32.5, -113 (FanDuel)
- Pass attempts under: 32.5, -108 (BetRivers)
- Pass completions over: 20.5, -108 (FanDuel)
- Pass completions under: 20.5, -105 (BetRivers)
Allen has struggled with his passing numbers over the last several weeks — and, of course, the weather is going to screw up the entire passing gameplan — but there's still some value to be had here.
Allen has completed more than 20.5 passes in six straight weeks — even in a 9-6 loss to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. And he's thrown for more than 230.5 yards in eight of his last nine games.
The All-Pro quarterback is also used to throwing in crazy winds, having spent his last four seasons in Buffalo and the previous three in Laramie, Wyo., a place known for its gusts.
While the weather and the Patriots' fantastic pass defense will pose issues at times, the prop numbers are a little too low to pass up.
The only concern is that the Patriots' run defense is distinctly worse than their pass defense, which may force Buffalo on the ground early and often. Then, if the Bills pull ahead on account of their ground game, they'll continue to stick with run plays.
Still, I'd sprinkle a small amount on his pass completion prop and passing yards prop based on how often Buffalo has relied on its franchise quarterback to make plays this season.
