JuJu Smith-Schuster Player Props
JuJu Smith-Schuster will trigger a $1 million bonus in his contract if he plays 50% of the snaps on Sunday and the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. That may be the only reason to feel optimistic about his chances at exceeding his yardage total against the Eagles.
At PointsBet as of this writing, his yardage prop sits at 40.5, a number Smith-Schuster has cleared only twice since Week 9 of the regular season. I will gladly fade a banged-up player whose role has diminished in recent weeks.
Betting Picks
The optimistic outlook for Smith-Schuster is tied entirely to his playing time and route participation. He played more than 80% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps before his injury against the Bengals and ran a route on 18-of-22 Mahomes pass attempts.
The problem with Smith-Schuster has remained the same over the past few seasons — he cannot separate consistently. There isn’t anything he does particularly well that will translate to a larger role than we have seen him play over the second half of the season. Even with the 31 snaps he played in the AFC Championship Game, he only received one target.
Smith-Schuster is propped at 3.5 receptions by sportsbooks across the board, and it is juiced to the under at most of them. He has only reached four receptions in two of his last 10 games.
The likelihood that three or fewer receptions would be enough to get him over 40 yards receiving is quite low. He averaged 12.0 yards per reception on the season, but all three of his longest receptions were in October or prior.
Over his last 10 games, he only has three catches that have exceeded 20 yards. With only three chunk gains over his last 37 receptions, I do not see any value in playing the over on his yardage total.
If you are set on playing a Smith-Schuster prop, make sure you shop for the best line, as the margins are tight. I expect both teams to move the ball and put up plenty of points.
I don’t love betting unders on props in spots where two good offenses will be playing in a climate-controlled environment. With that said, I do not believe Smith-Schuster will play a major factor in the outcome of the Super Bowl, so I will have some exposure to under 40.5 yards (best line currently at PointsBet).
Pick: JuJu Smith-Schuster Under 40.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to 38.5 |
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