Kadarius Toney Player Props
The tantalizing ability of Kadarius Toney is both impossible to ignore and extremely difficult to fade. The injury factor is already baked into his receiving yardage prop for Chiefs vs. Eagles in Super Bowl 57, as it’s a full 10 yards lower than his yardage prop closed prior to the AFC Championship Game.
Rather than assume he is fully healthy heading into Super Bowl Sunday, I am simply claiming a bet on talent in this instance is worth the risk when considering all factors involved.
Betting Picks
The first factor that leads me to believe Toney will exceed his receiving yards prop is how the Chiefs are attacking defenses, and how I expect them to attack the most vaunted pass rush in the NFL.
Andy Reid will want Patrick Mahomes to get the ball out of his hands quickly in this game, especially early, as negating the Eagles' pass rush and limiting the hits Mahomes absorbs will be essential.
Toney clearly has a portion of the playbook designed just for him. Travis Kelce was the only Chiefs pass-catcher who received more targets in the AFC Divisional Round. Since his arrival in Kansas City, Toney has been targeted on more than 30% of his routes.
Toney was one drop away from creating the big play and cresting this yardage prop on just one reception against the Bengals. He was targeted twice in the Chiefs' first 10 plays before an injury sidelined him for the remainder of the game.
It is worth noting that when Skyy Moore was given a larger role, he garnered seven targets in what likely would have been at minimum, three-to-four more opportunities for Toney.
Toney may actually have the easiest matchup of all Chiefs receivers. While the Eagles are top five in DVOA at defending Nos. 1 and 2 receivers, they rank 22nd in defending ‘other WRs,’ according to Football Outsiders. Toney fits the definition of ‘other WRs’ quite perfectly, as he will be deployed all around the formation.
When he does find himself in the slot, he will be matched up with Eagles nickel corner Avonte Maddox. Don’t let the big name fool you: Maddox ranked 37th in PFF coverage grade this season and may not even be healthy as he just shed a walking boot only six days ago.
There is a reason Toney is lined at 2.5 receptions with the juice on the over, signifying an approximate 61% chance he exceeds this number. In fact, PointsBet has already moved his reception prop to 3.5 receptions at the time of writing on Thursday afternoon.
I am not expecting Toney to play even half of the offensive snaps, and he may only run 14-20 routes all game in an attempt to keep him healthy. With that said, his yardage number is so low, it may only take one or two explosive plays to cash this ticket.
I will also play an alternate line of his receiving yards in case he is able to keep his health and make a major impact on the Super Bowl outcome.
Pick: Kadarius Toney Over 25.5 Rec Yards | Play to 27.5 (PointsBet)
Pick: Kadarius Toney 50+ Rec Yards (+300) |
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Pick: Toney Catch on 1st K.C. Drive (+500) |
