Kadarius Toney Receptions
| Prop | Kadarius Toney Over 4.5 Receptions (-120; playable to -135) |
| Matchup | Chiefs vs. Chargers |
| Day, Time | Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman ruled out, Kadarius Toney is going to need to step up for his new team.
He’s been eased into action, logging routes run totals of 8% and 43% in his first two games, respectively. I’m expecting him to be closer to the 55-60% range tonight, but I also see an 80%+ routes run rate in his range of potential outcomes — he would easily clear this number in that scenario.
When Toney has run a route during his short tenure with K.C., Mahomes has targeted him 30% of the time. He will be competing for targets with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson and, of course, Travis Kelce.
Kelce is Mahomes' No. 1 target, but we’ve seen the Chargers' Derwin James successfully shadow him in the past, so that could funnel more targets to Toney.
Toney has an aDot of just 5.1, which means he gets high-percentage looks and gets most of his yardage after the catch. He is one of the shiftiest runners with the ball in his hands, so he could clear his yardage prop of 52.5 if he breaks a couple tackles. But I think targeting his receptions — while it may be high — is the way to go.
It's worth noting Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are expected to return for the Chargers, which is another boost for this prop as that could keep the game close and favor a script that requires more passing.
I’m projecting Toney closer to 5.2 receptions with a 60% chance of clearing 4.5. He carries a massive ceiling and I want to tap into it. I would bet this up to -135.
