The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Title Game on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on CBS, with the Chiefs currently 4-point underdogs against the Ravens.
Our experts have been tracking their picks all week long ahead of the AFC Championship. For you Chiefs fans and backers, here are our best Chiefs bets for the AFC title game vs the Ravens — bets on the spread, total, props and more.
Best Chiefs Bets for AFC Title Game vs Ravens | Spread, Total, Props, More
| Chiefs Bets for AFC Title Game | |
|---|---|
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
Chiefs Best Bets vs Ravens | AFC Championship Picks
Chiefs +4.5
Play to +4
By Billy Ward
I’m buying the trends regarding Mahomes as an underdog. Per Evan Abrams, Mahomes is 8-3 straight-up as an underdog in his career and 5-0 in games where he opened as a ‘dog of three or more points.
Kansas City is peaking at the right time, looking like the vintage version of the team that’s won two of the last five Super Bowls. Thanks to the resurgence of star tight end Travis Kelce and the emergence of running back Isaiah Pacheco as a true workhorse back, they’ve averaged 26.5 points in the playoffs, even in tough weather conditions.
It should be easier going this week, giving them a chance to keep pace in a shootout and cover the spread or win outright. I want to make sure I’m getting all four points on the spread, but I’d bet that down to -120.
Pick: Chiefs +4.5 | Play to +4
Over 44.5
Play to 44.5
The initial weather reports for this game on Sunday were suggesting rain in the forecast. Now that the current forecast (as of Tuesday) suggests no rain and just cloudy skies in Baltimore, there’s no reason this total should be below 45.
Mahomes is 9-1-1 against the spread when lined as an underdog in his career and his aura seems to be propping up the Chiefs in this matchup. You can’t throw out the data from the regular season when Kansas City took a clear step back offensively, but betting on a Mahomes offense getting to at least 20 points is something I’m more than willing to trust.
Baltimore goes up early, runs it well and Mahomes engineers a comeback against the league’s best defense. That’s a recipe for points and why I’m betting the over on Sunday.
Pick: Over 44.5
Patrick Mahomes
Anytime TD +650
Now, this one is likely going to have people rolling their eyes, but I love Mahomes to score. The tricky part is “guessing” when Mahomes wants to use his athleticism to make plays.
We know he can do it. He’s scored five rushing TDs in 16 career playoff games (31%), which would mean if we just used his playoff history, his odds should be closer to +250 based on implied probability. However, we’re seeing odds closer to +600 against Baltimore despite not having odds over +400 all season.
Here are two reasons why:
- The Ravens' run defense is stout and has only allowed one quarterback (Deshaun Watson) to rush for a TD this season while also giving up the fewest rushing TDs in 2023 (six). The latter is also the main reason why I’m not high on Isiah Pacheco at +135.
- Mahomes didn’t run for a TD during the regular season and he hasn’t logged a rushing score in the postseason in over two years. That being said, Mahomes led the NFL in scramble rate (running the ball on broken plays designed as a pass) and had a career high in carries this season. If I’m taking any Chiefs longshot, my list starts and ends with Mahomes at +600.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Anytime TD +650
Patrick Mahomes
Over 1.5 Passing TDs
Mahomes is having the worst campaign of his professional career by a pretty significant margin. He finished the regular season with career-low averages in passing yards per game, touchdown passes per game, yards per attempt, yards per completion, passing success rate and more – along with a career high in interceptions.
But in rather predictable fashion, the Chiefs offense has sprung to life and completely flipped the script in the playoffs, creating an excellent buy-low spot for the two-time MVP. Mahomes managed to throw a pair of TD passes in over half of K.C.’s regular-season matchups (nine), despite posting relatively subpar numbers – and he’s already connected for three TDs in two playoff wins.
I think we’ll see Andy Reid trust Mahomes' arm at the goal line more than usual in this contest after having a TD taken off the board in the Divisional Round due to Mecole Hardman fumbling through the end zone on a short 1st-and-goal rush attempt.
No more messing around in the red zone. Put the ball in the hands of the best player, and let him do his thing.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing TDs
Travis Kelce
Anytime TD +130
The Chiefs showed the world they are still a postseason juggernaut by defeating the Bills yet again. We might be misguided by their offensive struggles during the regular season, but with Patrick Mahomes, all touchdown bets for his skill players are live — even against the top-rated defense in the NFL.
Travis Kelce finally woke up and scored twice against Buffalo. The Bills had only allowed three TDs to tight ends all season — similar to the Ravens, who also only allowed three. Although he hasn’t looked quite like his prime self, Kelce can still turn it on and is a matchup nightmare for any defense. Given that he’ll likely see close to 10 targets, not to mention his playoff pedigree (16 TDs in 14 playoff games from 2019-2023), there’s no shame in taking Kelce at better than +120.
Pick: Travis Kelce Anytime TD +130
Travis Kelce
Over 5.5 Catches
By Matt Trebby
If we’re looking strictly at playoff trends, the over on 5.5 receptions is an easy pick here.
Over the last four postseasons, Kelce has played 11 games and has had at least six receptions nine times, including in six of his last seven.
Action Network analyst Sean Koerner has Kelce projected for 5.8 receptions, while fellow expert Chris Raybon has him at 6.2. I’d play the -135 at DraftKings, which was available as of 10 p.m. ET on Saturday, but I wouldn’t go much higher than -145.
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Catches
Rashee Rice
Over 59.5 Rec. Yards
Rice has separated himself from the pack and has become the Chiefs' go-to wide receiver. He's hit the over at this number in six of his last eight games, with one of those unders coming in the Chiefs' win over the Bills — Patrick Mahomes only threw the ball 23 times but Rice still had four targets.
The matchup isn't a great one for Rice against the Ravens, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL against both the run and pass, so the Chiefs will likely still pass the ball a decent amount. With the Chiefs being a 4.5-point 'dog and the Ravens generally getting out to early leads, the game script is setting up for Mahomes to have to throw plenty. I would hit this line all the way to 65.5.
Pick: Rashee Rice Over 59.5 Rec. Yards | Play to 65.5
Rashee Rice
Anytime TD +160
By Sam Farley
After Travis Kelce’s two-touchdown performance against the Bills, there seems to have been collective amnesia regarding his performances this season up until that point.
That was the first time he’s scored since Week 11 and he now has seven TDs on the season, one fewer than Rashee Rice.
I’m certain that the Ravens will be focusing most on eliminating the threat of Kelce, which should mean favorable matchups for Rice. The rookie has grown into the offense and comes into this game with four touchdowns in his last eight games.
At +160 or better, I think you’re getting a very good price on him scoring again.
