Patrick Mahomes to Win MVP +900
If I had to take a longshot Chiefs future, it would be this one.
Without Tyreek Hill, it will only make what Mahomes does every week look even more impressive. And if the Chiefs win their usual 12-plus games, it will also look that much more impressive in what is now a loaded AFC West.
Plus, Aaron Rodgers is more likely to take a step back without Davante Adams than Mahomes without Hill, as Mahomes still has more weapons and will be in one of the pass-heaviest offenses in the league.
Chiefs to Win Super Bowl +1000
From a value perspective, this is a rock-solid bet. The Chiefs opened the last three seasons +600, +450 and +450 with Mahomes under center. Since October 2018, they’ve only had longer odds than this at any point of the season for a couple of two-week stretches, according to SportsOddsHistory.com.
Chiefs to Win AFC North +175
If there’s one bet I definitely want to shy away from, it’s AFC West futures. All four teams in the division could be playoff-caliber and will likely beat each other up.
Travis Kelce O/U 1,100.5 Rec Yards, 9.5 TD
I have Kelce projected for 91 receptions, 1,140 yards and 7.5 touchdowns, so I would lean over on his yardage prop. He’s gone over 1,110 yards in each of the past four seasons and five of the past six. Also, Kelce should be even more of a target hog with Tyreek Hill gone.
Meanwhile, Kelce only gone over 9.5 TDs twice in his career, so that one is way too risky.
Patrick Mahomes O/U 4,650 Passing Yards, 34.5 TD
I have him projected right in line with his yardage prop (4,664) and under his TDs (32). Mahomes has gone well over his TD line in three of the past four years, but that was with Tyreek Hill catching 10.3 per season.
Skyy Moore O/U 50.5 receptions, 680.5 receiving yards, 4.5 TDs
I have more at 46/588/4, so there could be value on the unders.
Moore is a talented player, but the offense will spread the ball around. And not every Moore touch has to come as a receiver, as he will also be involved as a runner.
Remember, both Hill (593) and Mecole Hardman (538) both netted less than 600 receiving yards in their rookie seasons.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire O/U 700.5 rushing yards, 5.5 rushing TDs
My projections of 718 yards and 5.9 TDs are right in line with these props. This is a deep RB room with Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon and Ronald Jones, with all of them likely to be involved.
JuJu Smith-Schuster O/U 74.5 receptions, 750.5 receiving yards, 6.5 TDs
I have him projected for 75/750/6. If he plays all 17 games, he likely goes over, but I always factor in a bit of injury randomness.
