Chiefs vs. Falcons Prediction, Pick, Odds, How To Watch Sunday Night Football

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) face the Atlanta Falcons (1-1) on Sunday Night Football in Week 3. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites with the game total set at 46.5. Kansas City is a -185 favorite on the moneyline, while Atlanta is a +150 underdog to pull off the upset. The game will be broadcast live on NBC and can be streamed on platforms like Peacock or YouTube TV.

The Chiefs are fortunate to be 2-0 after close wins over the Ravens and Bengals. Patrick Mahomes hasn't hit his stride yet, and the offense will be without Isiah Pacheco for at least the next four weeks. Kirk Cousins came into his own with an impressive game-winning 2-minute drive on Monday night against the Eagles. It was an important win for Atlanta after an underwhelming Week 1 performance against Pittsburgh.

Let's get into my Chiefs vs. Falcons prediction for Sunday night and my NFL picks and predictions for Week 3.

SPREAD

I'm not touching a spread that's been fluctuating between Chiefs -3 and -3.5, which is between two extremes in terms of historical trends. According to our Action Labs data, Patrick Mahomes 24-8-1 (75%) against the spread (ATS) when -3 or less, but just 18-31-1 (37%) ATS when favored by more than a field goal since early November of 2020.

MONEYLINE

No play on the moneyline for me. I don't want to bet against Mahomes, but this could be a trap game for the Chiefs coming off a short week after an emotional win against a rival.

TOTAL

I'm playing the total under 46.5, which is available across the market according to our NFL odds page.

Chiefs vs. Falcons Pick: Under 46.5 (-120) | Play to Under 46

Sunday, Sept. 22

8:20 p.m. ET

NBC

Chiefs Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-3 -115	46.5 -110o / -110u	-165

Falcons Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+3 -105	46.5 -110o / -110u	+140

Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Chiefs vs. Falcons Point Spread: Chiefs -3.5
• Chiefs vs. Falcons Total: Over/Under 46.5
• Chiefs vs. Falcons Moneyline: Chiefs -185 | Falcons +150

Chiefs vs. Falcons: NFL Week 3 Picks

Note: All data is from PFF unless otherwise noted.

The Chiefs have been wholly reliant on a dink-and-dunk passing offense so far this season. Patrick Mahomes has the second-lowest intended air yards per attempt in the league at 5.1, and his average time to throw of 2.61 seconds would be the quickest of his career, by far, over a full season.

Supposed deep threats Xavier Worthy and Justin Watson both have average depth of targets under 10 yards. Part of it is by design to get the ball in the hands of Rashee Rice, but the bigger issue is that Mahomes and the Chiefs' coaching staff don't seem to trust their pass protection. Rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia was benched last week. The main pass-protecting back (Samaje Perine) just arrived a few weeks ago.

Instead of airing it out, Mahomes has relied on his receivers to the tune of 8.3 yards after the catch, which is tied for second in the NFL. The Falcons defense is not an easy matchup in that regard, entering Week 3 allowing an NFL-low 2.8 YAC.

Kansas City will likely have to continue to rely on the quick passing game as its running game took a hit with the injury to Isiah Pacheco. His replacement, Carson Steele, is fun, but he's essentially a fullback. The Falcons faced two mobile quarterbacks that skew their run defense stats, but they've allowed just 3.82 YPC to running backs and were just as good last season (3.86 YPC).

The Falcons are sixth in red-zone defense at 28.6%, but I don't put too much stock into that because a lot of it came against Justin Fields. The Chiefs are sure to get into the end zone a few times — Mahomes is Mahomes — but I'm expecting long drives with few explosive runs or passes.

As was the case last season, the Chiefs can afford to be less aggressive on offense because they have a defense that was fifth in DVOA against the pass last season and came through with a crucial scoop-and-score against Joe Burrow last week while holding Ja'Marr Chase to 35 yards.

The Ravens and Bengals had success against the Chiefs by coming out of 11 personnel (3 WR/1TE/1RB) and heavily targeting their tight ends, but the Falcons prefer to stay in 11 personnel. I think they'll switch it up and play more 12 with Charlie Woerner as the TE2 alongside Kyle Pitts, but they struggled in the passing game in Week 1 when they had more of a 75-25 split.

Kirk Cousins was sitting on 31-of-49 (63.2%) passing for 326 yards (6.65 yards per attempt) before the final drive against Philly's disastrous prevent defense, so it's hard to gauge if he's 100% back from is Achilles injury.

The Chiefs have one of the best cornerback groups in the NFL led by Trent McDuffie (fifth of 98 CBs in PFF grading), so Cousins is unlikely to find the success he did targeting wide receivers Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud — the trio combined for 12 catches, 184 yards, and 2 TDs.

Kansas City has allowed the eighth-fewest yards per game (95.0) and is tied for the fourth-fewest receptions per game (8.5) to wide receivers through two weeks. This figures to be another big Bijan Robinson week — the Falcons are 27th in pass rate over expectation at -10.7%, per NFeLo — but this sets up as a spot for Kyle Pitts to improve on his 3-23-0.5 average receiving line.

Best Bet for Chiefs vs. Falcons

The Chiefs got in a shootout against Lamar Jackson in Week 1 and their scoring was aided by a scoop-and-score and a game-extending penalty last week, but with the Chiefs continuing to throw underneath, their final scores will start looking a lot more like they did last season (21.8-17.3).

According to our Action Labs data, Primetime unders are 160-146-3 (60%) since 2019.

There it is. A whole article on the Chiefs without any mention of Taylor Swift — or that her boyfriend has worse numbers than Kyle Pitts (for now).

Pick: Under 46.5 (to 46)

• 66% of bets and 61% of the money are on the Chiefs to cover the spread.
• 53% of bets and 55% of the money are on the over.
• 91% of bets and 94% of the money on the moneyline are on the Chiefs.

Kansas City vs. Atlanta is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET live from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The game will be broadcast live on NBC and can be streamed on platforms like Peacock or YouTube TV.

For more on NFL weather for Week 3, click here.