The Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) and Cleveland Browns (3-10) will face off in NFL Week 15. Kickoff is set for in 1 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The game will be broadcast live on CBS.
The Chiefs are favored by 4 points over the Browns with the game total set at 43 points scored. The Chiefs are -220 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Browns are +180 to pull off the upset.
The Browns lost 27-14 to the Steelers last week and have lost four of their last five games. Jameis Winston threw two more interceptions and has now thrown nine in his last five games. The Chiefs won 19-17 over the Chargers last week. Kansas City’s offense only averaged 4.6 yards per play but won on a field goal as time expired.
Let's get into my Browns vs Chiefs predictions and NFL picks.
Chiefs vs. Browns Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -220 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +180 |
- Chiefs vs. Browns spread: Chiefs -4 (-110)
- Chiefs vs. Browns over/under: 43 points scored
- Chiefs vs. Browns moneyline: Chiefs -220, Browns +180
- Chiefs vs. Browns best bet: Browns +4.5
MyChiefs vs. Browns best bet is on Browns +4.5, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
I am siding with the Browns in this one, as the Chiefs are 0-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games.
Moneyline
While I like Cleveland against the spread, I won't bet the Browns to win outright on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I do not have a pick on the total in this game.
My Pick: Browns +4.5
Chiefs vs. Browns NFL Week 15 Preview
This line came down early in the week after sharp money came in on the Browns against a Chiefs team that hasn’t covered the spread in any of their last seven games. Yes, 0-7 in their last seven against the spread (ATS).
I was on Cleveland last week when it lost and didn’t cover on the road against the Steelers, but I’ll be back on it this week. The Browns missed two field goals, committed three turnovers and outgained the Steelers.
The Chiefs were double-digit favorites against the Panthers and Raiders and won those games by a combined five points, then last week they won by two against the Chargers. This is not a team that is playing particularly well despite a one-loss record.
The Chiefs' offensive line is banged up. There were some injuries suffered last week late against the Chargers that worry me; now, they're going up against Myles Garrett.
There’s no doubt that Garrett is going to finish the season strong and keep playing hard to lead a Browns defense that held the Steelers below 300 yards of offense last week.
This Browns defense also plays the fourth-most man coverage in the NFL.
Patrick Mahomes averages 7.4 yards per attempt against zone and 6.4 against man. Both DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce are more efficient against zone, as well. The Chiefs’ lack of explosiveness on offense is especially pronounced when they face a lot of man coverage.
The trends lean toward the Browns as well. Teams that have won at least nine of their last 10 games are 42-67 ATS in December. Also, December underdogs facing favorites who have a win percentage of 85% or higher are 57-29-2 ATS.
Then there are the trends you may have heard before about how Mahomes struggles when laying more than a field goal. Since November 2020, he’s 19-37-2 in those spots.
This game also fits our NFL Luck Rankings’ threshold with the Chiefs rated as the luckiest team this season and the Browns at 29. When the gap between teams is 24 or more, the unlucky team is 128-76-2 against the closing spread. That’s a 62% trend that cannot be ignored.
My Pick: Browns +4.5
Browns vs Chiefs Betting Trends
NFL Weather
