Chiefs vs Packers Odds, Prediction | Sunday Night Football Pick

Chiefs vs Packers odds are on the move as kickoff at Lambeau Field for Sunday Night Football nears. Kansas City is installed as 6-point favorites (5.5 at FanDuel and bet365) on the spread while the game total over/under can be found at 43.5 or 44.

The Chiefs (8-3) are in the frozen tundra to take on the Packers (5-6) in an appetizing SNF affair. NFL weather is always worth monitoring at Lambeau Field, but it looks like any wintry mix should subside by game time.

This is a massive game for the Packers, who would take over the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoffs with an upset. After pulling off a Thanksgiving stunner over the Lions for a second straight victory, Green Bay sits one game under .500 and in the mix of a muddied wild card race. The Packers will be a little shorthanded, however, as CB Jaire Alexander and RB Aaron Jones were declared inactive pregame.

Conversely, the Chiefs would be comfortably in the postseason as the No. 2 overall seed in the AFC if the season ended after last week. Every game from here on out is extremely important to Andy Reid's bunch in terms of the race for the No. 1 overall seed. Entering Week 13, Kansas City was one of four teams in the AFC with three losses (with two teams one game back), so this should be a tight race all the way to the end.

With plenty at stake, who will come out on top and more importantly, who will cover the spread? Find out in my Sunday Night Football betting preview, which includes a Chiefs vs Packers prediction against the spread for my NFL pick.

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The Packers struggled mightily on offense in the first half of the season, especially over the first 30 minutes of games. However, they have turned things around in recent weeks. Jordan Love looks a lot more comfortable in the pocket and has increased his accuracy, while the young receiving corps has looked much more competent. Improved health along a rock-solid offensive line has only helped matters.

Logically speaking, it makes sense this offense would see progress as the season has gone on with so many young and inexperienced skill-position pieces. I expect to see this group continue to evolve over the final weeks of the regular season, even with an injured Aaron Jones. It is worth noting running back AJ Dillon and wide receiver/return man Jayden Reed are both listed as questionable, but both did get in practice time during the week.

On the other side of the ball, Green Bay has a league average defense with slightly better results against the pass than run, partly by schematic design. The case for optimism moving forward revolves around improved health after the Packers dealt with a number of critical injuries and the trade of cornerback Rasul Douglas.

Their statuses are worth monitoring, but a trio of starters in lockdown cornerback Jaire Alexander (hasn't played since Week 9), safety Rudy Ford (hasn't played since Week 10) and linebacker De'Vondre Campbell (missed last week) all practiced during the week and received questionable designations on the final injury report. The same can be said for Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt along the defensive line.

It looks like the secondary could receive a boost with the return of safety Darnell Savage, who practiced this week after coming off IR, although the prognosis doesn't look as good for cornerback Eric Stokes. He's listed as doubtful after also coming off IR.

Regardless, it looks like the health of this group is trending in the right direction after the mini bye.

Kansas City features one of the league's best offenses because Patrick Mahomes is still the quarterback the last time I checked. However, instead of grading out as one of the best in the league, the Chiefs "only" sit just outside the top five  in both EPA per Play and Success Rate. The offense just looks off from the eye test with far too many extended droughts.

So, what has been the issue for the Chiefs? Well, the wide receiver room has had drop issues and still hasn't found the ideal rotation. Additionally, while the interior of the offensive line remains elite, both offensive tackles have struggled mightily. Per PFF, Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor rank 63rd and 72nd, respectively, among 84 qualified tackles. Taylor has also been penalized 15 times — the most of any tackle — while Smith has the third most with nine.

That said, Kansas City has been able to survive offensive inconsistencies because its defense has far exceeded expectations. The Chiefs are vulnerable against the run, ranking 20th in Success Rate and 31st in EPA per Rush. However, they rank in the top five in both of those metrics against the pass, driving their top-five overall rank by most advanced numbers.

Chris Jones is one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL andTrent McDuffie is turning into a star in the secondary — but this group fits the true definition of the sum being greater than its parts. It helps when you have one of the best defensive coordinators in the league in Steve Spagnuolo.

I think Kansas City has overperformed a bit on defense, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a production dip over the next few weeks. It's not a top-five group in my eyes, but this defense is certainly well above average, which bodes well for the future, especially once the offense inevitably figures it out.

This is a great situational spot on paper for the Packers.

They will play their biggest game of the season at home in primetime after previously playing on Thursday afternoon, which gives them extra time to rest up, get healthy and prepare. Meanwhile, the Chiefs will play their second straight road game after a divisional win in Las Vegas with a marquee matchup against the Bills on deck.

Most importantly, the Packers are playing their best football of the season. Overall, Green Bay has been fairly unlucky in 2023 with four losses by a combined 10 points, in addition to a number of key injuries. But the on-field performance has taken a major leap due to the significant improvement of Jordan Love.

The Kansas City offense still has no rhythm, primarily as a result of drops and inconsistent play from a very underwhelming wide receiver corps in addition to issues at both tackle spots, which could prove problematic against Preston Smith and Rashan Gary.

Let's just compare both quarterbacks since Week 7, which came after Green Bay's bye week. Love has been even better over the past three weeks, but this will provide us with a larger sample size. From an Adjusted EPA per Play perspective, Love ranks ninth amongst all quarterbacks while Mahomes ranks 10th. Their Adjusted Completion percentages are also about equal even though Love has averaged 1.5 more Air Yards.

I'm not trying to compare the two by any stretch. Mahomes is in a different stratosphere and remains the best quarterback on the planet. However, that speaks to the improvements of this young Green Bay offense that continues to grow in confidence. It also illustrates Kansas City's struggles on offense. I just don't trust the Chiefs to win by substantial margin at the moment.

I'm a believer in Kansas City's defensive improvement, but the secondary has played above its head this season. Green Bay's sturdy offensive line can also hold its own up front, which is key against Chris Jones and company.

The Packers can find success on the ground to shorten this game and I expect Love to continue his strong recent play.

While Pacheco should churn yards on the ground and Kelce should find success against a Green Bay defense that struggles to defend tight ends, I anticipate more ups and downs from the Kansas City offense.

Ultimately, I believe this line is too high in a spot that favors the Packers. I expect to get Green Bay's best effort in a game that could ultimately decide whether it makes the postseason.