The Kansas City Chiefs (17-2) face the Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) face off in Super Bowl 59 tonight in a rematch from two years ago. Kansas City is looking to become the first team to ever win three straight Super Bowls.
The latest Chiefs vs Eagles odds have the Chiefs as -120 moneyline favorites and the Eagles as +100 underdogs. The over/under is 48.5 points (-110/-110). The Chiefs are 1-to-1.5-point favorites on the spread depending on the sportsbook.
Let's get into my Super Bowl preview and Chiefs vs Eagles prediction and pick, in addition to the latest betting trends, Super Bowl inactives and more.
Chiefs vs Eagles Prediction, Odds
Against the Spread Pick
It's just too hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes in a spread this tight.
Bet Chiefs -1 (-105, Caesars) and play to -1.5 as needed, but this line has moved toward Philadelphia so you could get even better value.
My Pick: Chiefs -1 (-110, Caesars); bet to -1.5
Moneyline
Since I'm betting the Chiefs, I don't see any need to play a moneyline at -115 since only a one-point win doesn't also cash a Chiefs -1 spread bet.
Over/Under
I'm not playing a total but I lean under. Both teams have leaned under on the season, and the Chiefs' second halves have hit at a terrific rate.
This could be a short Super Bowl with both teams chewing up clock on long, extended drives — that may push the total down.
Chiefs vs Eagles Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
- Chiefs vs Eagles Moneyline: Chiefs -120, Eagles +100
- Chiefs vs Eagles Over/Under: Chiefs -1, Eagles +1
- Chiefs vs Eagles Total: 48.5 points
For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Chiefs vs Eagles Preview, Super Bowl Prediction
Here we are again, with a rematch from the 2023 championship and the Chiefs trying to do something never done in NFL history: win three straight Super Bowls.
The storyline is clear. Do you want the far superior roster in Philadelphia or the far superior quarterback in Kansas City?
The margins are tight, with the game priced near a coin flip.
The Chiefs offense has found an extra gear late in the season and the playoffs, but the Eagles defense is the best unit on the field and the best in the league. Defensive coordinatorVic Fangio built this defense to take away the deep ball and the middle of the field, but that's exactly where Patrick Mahomes lives these days.
Expect a pass-heavy script with plenty of short passes to Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce. The Chiefs will get theirs — Mahomes is too good not to — but the Eagles defense will keep them in it.
I'm much more interested in the other side of the ball, since Philadelphia's offense is the unit I trust least.
This Eagles offense has played only four games all season against a top-12 defense by DVOA, so they are pretty untested. Since the start of October, the Eagles have lived a charmed life, trailing in the fourth quarter for only four minutes, and in just two games.
What happens if Philadelphia finally has to play from a negative game script?
There's a good chance we finally find out.
The Eagles are as run-heavy as any team, but Kansas City looks up to the task. The Chiefs run defense ranked top eight in yards per carry, yards per game and yards before contact, and top three in yards after contact and explosive run rate allowed. Kansas City was the best tackling team in football, per PFF.
The Chiefs allowed only six runs all season over 25 yards — three on QB scrambles — so this defense is built to not give up huge chunk plays to Saquon Barkley and force Philly to grind its way down the field.
If Philadelphia can't win the way it wants — by running the football — then this game comes down to Jalen Hurts against Mahomes. Perhaps even more importantly, it comes down to Hurts against Chiefs defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo.
Hurts has clear weaknesses Kansas City can exploit. He ranks top three in EPA and Success Rate against man coverage but outside the top 20 versus zone, and he was bottom six among all qualifying quarterbacks in most key metrics when pressured. Hurts loves to roll right and struggles against the blitz, tendencies Spags will attack; Philadelphia ranked bottom 10 by DVOA on third downs.
If the Chiefs defense can get Philadelphia to third down, Spaguolo's defense will find a way to beat Hurts.
The biggest mismatch on the field might also be the most important, unless Hurts proves he can consistently make the reads and throws and beat Spagnuolo and Mahomes.
If it's still close late and Mahomes has the ball, advantage Chiefs. If it's close and Hurts has the ball instead — advantage Chiefs, until proven otherwise.
Mahomes is 28-9-1 ATS (76%) lifetime as anything less than a three-point favorite for his career. He's a perfect 8-0 both straight up and ATS in the playoffs when that drops under three.
Only Tom Brady and Joe Burrow have beaten Mahomes in the postseason; Hurts is 0-3 straight up away from home in the playoffs, averaging a 14-point loss.
Andy Reid's teams are an incredible 29-3 with 13 days of rest with Mahomes or Donovan McNabb at QB. Reid, Spags and Mahomes are just too good together with this much time to prepare for an opponent with clear weaknesses.
If it's available at your book, my favorite way to bet the Chiefs is to win from behind (+175, DraftKings). Mahomes has trailed by one score in the fourth quarter of nine playoff games. He led the Chiefs to a score on 13 of 14 such drives, won six of the nine games, and forced overtime in two others.
Mahomes has played 20 playoff games — the Chiefs are 17-3 — and he's led Kansas City to a come-from-behind win 10 times. That's 59% of all Mahomes playoff games resulting in a comeback Chiefs victory — including all three Super Bowl wins.
The Chiefs are inevitable. When the margin is this close, just take Mahomes.
My Pick: Chiefs -1 (-110, Caesars) to -1.5
Chiefs vs Eagles Betting Trends
- 51% of bets and 60% of money on the spread are on the Eagles to cover.
- 56% of bets and 49% of money on the moneyline are on the Chiefs to win.
- 81% of bets and 79% of money on the total are on the OVER.
Chiefs vs Eagles Inactives
Chiefs Inactives
| Player |
|---|
| CB Steven Nelson |
| CB Keith Taylor |
| DE Joshua Uche |
| OL C.J. Hanson |
| OL Wanya Morris |
| OT Ethan Driskell |
| DE Malik Herring |
Eagles Inactives
| Player |
|---|
| S Lewis Cine |
| DE Bryce Huff |
| G Trevor Keegan |
| T/G Darian Kinnard |
| QB Tanner McKee (3rd QB) |
| CB Eli Ricks |
| WR Ainias Smith |
How To Watch Super Bowl 59
Super Box 59 will kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET from the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The game will be broadcast live on FOX and can be streamed on Tubi.
