The Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) and Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) will begin NFL Week 17 on Christmas at 1 p.m. EST from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. The game will be broadcast exclusively on Netflix.
The Chiefs are favored by 2.5 points (-110) with the game total set at 44.5. The Chiefs are -145 favorites to win outright on the moneyline and the Steelers are +120.
Let's get into my Chiefs vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks.
Chiefs vs. Steelers Predictions
Spread
I'm not playing either side of this spread.
Over/Under
Both teams are due for some positive regression offensively, so we're starting Christmas by betting this over.
I logged this bet at 43.5 before the total went up to 44.5.
My Pick: Over 44.5
Chiefs vs. Steelers Odds
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 44 -110o / -110u | -145 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 44 -110o / -110u | +120 |
- Chiefs vs. Steelers spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-115)
- Chiefs vs. Steelers over/under: 44.5 points scored
- Chiefs vs. Steelers moneyline: Chiefs -145, Steelers +120
- Chiefs vs. Steelers pick: Over 44.5
MyChiefs vs. Steelers best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Chiefs vs. Steelers Same-Game Parlay
By Matthew Trebby
The biggest edge in expert Sean Koerner’s projections is on Marquise Brown to go under 42.5 receiving yards. While Brown had 45 in his Chiefs debut last week, he only ran 15 routes and is unlikely to replicate that production on a limited workload, even though, as Nick laid out above, that is likely to increase.
You can parlay Giffen's pick on the over with Brown's under and get a +268 parlay at DraftKings.
Chiefs-Steelers SGP: Over 45 & Marquise Brown Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (+268)
Chiefs vs. Steelers Betting Trends
- After going seven straight games without covering the spread, the Chiefs have covered in each of their last two games.
- The UNDER has hit in 3 of the Chiefs’ last 4 games.
- The Steelers have covered the spread in 5 of their last 8 games, although they haven’t done so in either of their last 2.
- The OVER has hit in 5 of the Steelers’ last 8 games.
Chiefs vs. Steelers Preview
The Christmas opener between the Chiefs and Steelers also happens to be a game that meets one of our Luck Rankings thresholds.
In this case, there's a signal on the total as our Luck Total rates this game as +5.4. Anything +5.0 or higher this time of the year means there's a signal on the over, with both teams scoring and allowing fewer points than expected. That means we should see some positive scoring regression.
There's also plenty of reason to back the over because of the injuries to both teams.
Defensively, both Pittsburgh and Kansas City are likely to be without key players. Cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is out for Pittsburgh, while defensive tackle Chris Jones is questionable for Kansas City. I'd lean toward Jones not playing knowing that Grade 1 calf strains can easily re-injure, and it's typically at a Grade 2 level when they do. While this game is important to the Chiefs — a win clinches them home-field advantage in the playoffs — losing Jones for the playoffs by risking him here seems like an unnecessary risk.
Offensively, Steelers WR George Pickens is back, while Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has four more days since his last game to heal his high ankle sprain. In addition, Kansas City WR Marquise "Hollywood" Brown will be in action for his second game of the year and looked very good last week against Houston in his first action of the year. That continuity should only help the now-healthy receiver, and I'd expect an uptick in snaps from his 27% snap rate against the Texans.
Schematically, this is a relatively neutral matchup for both quarterbacks, who grade within 2.2% above or below expectation based off the coverages the opposing defenses tend to use. We can have faith that the Expected Scores, which power our Luck Rankings, should be in the ballpark of the correct number.
After adjusting those for schedule and injuries, I'm getting this game at a shade above the key number of 44, so I'll back the over here.
My Pick: Over 44.5
NFL Weather
