Kendrick Lamar Props, Odds: Super Bowl Halftime Show Predictions

The Super Bowl halftime show tends to bring a spotlight on artists either rising up the ranks (The Weeknd), or seasoned veterans that have been making music for multiple generations (Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg).

For Super Bowl 59, we’re blessed with rapper Kendrick Lamar, who has been on the scene since 2012 — it could be argued he is at an all-time high in his career for hip-hop artistry. While he has many big hits, Lamar’s Drake diss track “Not Like Us” was a certified banger when it was released and became so popular, it was awarded by the Grammy Awards with Record of the Year and Song of the Year.

Kendrick Lamar Props for Super Bowl Halftime Show

With the halftime show approaching, sportsbooks have a number of betting props up for Lamar’s performance like “First Song Performed,” over/unders for wardrobe changes and songs played, and whether Taylor Swift or Drake will appear on stage.

While the latter two seem quite unlikely, especially Drake, there’s still some value in these markets and can make for an entertaining wager with friends while enjoying some West Coast bops before the second half of Super Bowl.

Kendrick Lamar First Song Odds

Kendrick Lamar First Song Prediction

Squabble Up +430

When betting on these markets, it can be difficult to separate fandom from analysis. Everyone has a favorite Kendrick Lamar song but you need to put yourself in the shoes of a production company and the visualization of how an artist would want to start the show.

Last year with Usher, he went with “My Way” and “Caught Up” as his first two songs. In each of the last five Super Bowls, no artist has gone with their lead single off their newest album.

In fact, the last Super Bowl halftime performer to do that was Justin Timberlake in 2018, when he led with “Filthy” from his latest album at the time, “Man of The Woods.” This is why I’m not as high on “Not Like Us” to lead the way at +210 — that song has such gravity and drama attached, it would be too difficult as an artist to then pivot to another song. There’s nowhere to go but down if that’s the first song.

I think Lamar will use a song off his new album “GNX” — the song that could get the crowd on board and be a good intro for new listeners to Lamar is “Squabble Up.” The song was used as a snippet to intro the “Not Like Us” video and “Squabble Up” opening with the short breaths is a perfect way to tease the crowd.

The odds at +430 are worth a wager. While I would love for “Humble.” to be the opening song — it’s Lamar’s most-streamed song of all time, according to Spotify, and the betting favorite), its popularity lends itself to be used as a bridge song to get to another segment of the performance.

But if it does get played first, like the song says, I’ll “Sit down, be humble.”

Kendrick Lamar Last Song Odds

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Kendrick Lamar Last Song Prediction

Not Like Us +230

I had to include “Not Like Us” somewhere — I think it's set up to be Lamar's closer.

If you haven’t watched the music video or any of Lamar’s live performances of the song, the audience/bystander participation is electric, to say the least. It seems off-putting to have a crowd of 60,000 people sing in unison “It’s probably A MINORRRRR,” but the energy brought on by this song might be too powerful to feature as an intro or middle track.

It’s a showstopper, though Lamar might have to be careful with this version for the Super Bowl given it's a song that essentially buries Drake (and his crew) for alleged pedophilia. I think the producers will chop up the song a bit and use it to end the performance, similar to how Usher used “Yeah” as his closer — it's the song everyone wanted to hear.

The current favorite for last song performed is “All The Stars” at +140, a song from the Black Panther soundtrack featuring SZA. I love SZA but because she’s featured on three of Lamar’s biggest songs, it wouldn't make sense for her powerful chorus to be the closer since this is technically Lamar’s show. Look for SZA to be featured somewhere in the middle to break up the show and allow her to sing a hit of hers like, “Snooze” or “Kill Bill” to showcase her individual talent.

Celebrity Guest to Appear on Stage

Celebrity Guest Prediction

Jay Rock +205

Kendrick Lamar’s second studio album — “good kid, m.A.A.d City” — was an instant classic and has two of my favorite K.Dot songs of all time in “Backstreet Freestyle” and “m.A.A.d city.” As years have gone on, one song on the album was a slow burn for me that eventually became a certified anthem — “Money Trees.”

The popularity of “Money Trees” was something that didn’t really take off until after 2020 — as we get closer to Super Bowl LIX, it’s now the most-streamed song off this album with over a billion streams. This is why I’m going with Jay Rock for my “celebrity guest” prediction. I suspect Lamar will play “Money Trees” as it features an iconic verse from Jay Rock. Publications like Complex and Pitchfork lauded Rock's appearance on this song in 2023 and called it one of the top-25 verses over the last 10 years at the time.

With the options for this prop featuring the likes of Taylor Swift (not happening) and Drake (LOL), there are more likely selections like Future (+185) and Metro Boomin (+190). Those two will probably show up to perform “Like That,” which low-key kicked off the Drake-Kendrick beef.

We already know SZA will be performing with Lamar, so let’s ride with Jay Rock and find some shade in the “Money Trees.”