More than 100 general managers, scouts and media members will be on hand to watch quarterback Kyler Murray work out at the Oklahoma pro day on Wednesday.
Although he attended the combine, Murray opted not to do any drills there, so his pro day will be the final chance teams have to evaluate him in person before the draft, unless they have him in for a private visit.
While most of the focus will be on Murray's performance in the passing drills, there will of course be some interest in his athletic drills.
Here's the prop for Murray's 40-yard dash, as well as my analysis.
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Kyler Murray's 40-Yard Dash Time
- Over 4.40 Seconds: -120
- Under 4.40 Seconds: -120
Although Murray reportedly played the 2018 season at 195 pounds, he measured in at 5-foot-10 and 207 pounds at the combine. Given that he intentionally put on the extra pounds to allay concerns about his size, I think it's likely that Murray will have a comparable weight at the pro day, where he will reportedly be measured again.
#Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray will run the 40 at his Pro Day, along with a regular passing workout, source said. He’s also expected to weigh-in again and get measured… for all the height truthers out there.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 7, 2019
In 2017 spring practices, when he was significantly lighter, Murray reportedly ran a 4.38-second hand-timed 40-yard dash.
Given that Murray is now heavier, it's likely that he will be slower.
Additionally, the 40-yard dash is fairly insignificant for quarterbacks. Whereas a wide receiver might spend a large portion of his pre-combine training in preparation for the 40, a quarterback is likelier to spend more of his time working on his throwing mechanics and preparing for his scripted passing drills.
So it's possible that Murray hasn't focused all that much on the 40 when training for his pro day. After all, regardless of whether he runs a 4.38 or 4.50, teams know that he's athletic: He rushed for 1,001 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2018.
Finally, it's possible (although not certain) that Oklahoma will have lasers set up to capture 40 times. Some larger programs have reportedly used lasers at past pro days — the NFL users lasers at the combine — and laser-timed 40s on average are 0.05 seconds slower than hand-timed 40s.
Add it all together, and I'll take the over — although I wouldn't bet it any lower than -120.
THE PICK: Over 4.40 Seconds (-120)
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
