With the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft less than a day old, I've compiled my initial 2019 projections for Kyler Murray.
One important thing to keep in mind: These projections aren't a reflection of how I think he should be used in Arizona — I'm simply trying to project how he will be used.
Kyler Murray 2019 Projections
To no surprise, the Arizona Cardinals went with Murray with the top overall pick despite having already having a first-round quarterback from just a year ago on their roster in Josh Rosen. The fact of the matter is that Kliff Kingsbury is the new head coach and Murray is his guy.
Expect him to start Week 1; that’s how I’m projecting him.
Here are my initial projections for Murray:
- 3,350 passing yards
- 18.8 pass touchdowns
- 14 interceptions
- 500 rush yards
- 4.6 rush TDs
I created the following polls to gauge what other people were thinking — an opening line if you will. I had shaded a few of the numbers a bit higher, but it appeared like my raw projections seem to be in line with the consensus opinion:
How many passing yards will Kyler Murray (Cardinals) throw for in 2019?
— Sean Koerner (@The_Oddsmaker) April 25, 2019
Being a dual-threat quarterback makes him an instant fantasy commodity — it's why I currently have him as my No. 21 quarterback in our most recent set of fantasy football rankings. His upside makes him an ideal backup QB to stash, which I've done before with rookie QBs like Deshaun Watson in 2017 and Lamar Jackson in 2018.
Kingsbury will likely tailor the offense around Murray’s strengths, and I'm afraid that could be a ding to David Johnson's fantasy value. Murray is more likely to pull the ball down and run with it then dump it off to Johnson. Not to mention that Murray's scrambling ability could take away some rushing touchdowns from DJ around the goal line.
The offense as a whole should improve, which could allow for more touchdowns to be handed out, mitigating some of the concerns I laid out for DJ. Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk should get a bit of a boost having Murray under center this season. And there aren't any fantasy-relevant tight ends on the current roster, so nothing to see there.
