Colts vs Raiders Prediction & Pick: NFL Week 17 Preview

Sunday, Dec. 31

1:00 p.m. ET

CBS

Pick: Raiders +4 (Play to +3.5)

Colts vs Raiders odds have the Colts listed as 4-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 42.5 total points.

The Colts enter NFL Week 17 in possession of the final AFC Wild Card spot as well as in a three-way tie for the AFC South’s best record. Meanwhile, the Raiders have a puncher’s chance to make the playoffs after back-to-back wins over the Chargers and Chiefs.

The sharps love Las Vegas in this spot, and I’m in total agreement. Here’s why taking the Raiders as 4-point 'dogs is my Colts vs Raiders prediction & pick for NFL Week 17.

Pick: Raiders +4 (Play to +3.5)

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Sunday, Dec. 31

1 p.m. ET

CBS

Raiders Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-4 -105	42.5 -110o / -110u	-190

Colts Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+4 -115	42.5 -110o / -110u	+160

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Colts vs Raiders Preview

At this rate, it will be hard for Mark Davis to pass on making Antonio Pierce the Raiders' full-time head coach.  Pierce has changed the culture in Las Vegas, and the results are evident heading into Sunday’s contest against the Colts. The Raiders are 4-3 straight up and 5-1-1 against the spread since Pierce replaced Josh McDaniels.

The Raiders defense has been outstanding of late. Las Vegas has allowed only 12.7 points per game over the last three weeks — which tops the league over that span —  while tallying seven turnovers and four defensive touchdowns over the last two weeks.

Chris Raybon noted in his Five Picks in Five Minutes segment how the Raiders defense has been tremendous under Pierce even when eliminating takeaways from the equation. It ranks second in EPA per play allowed, first in EPA per rush allowed and 10th in EPA per dropback allowed since he took over.

On the other hand, Gardner Minshew ranks 29th in EPA per play. He’s PFF’s 34th-graded quarterback, and has been pestered a bunch lately.

Indianapolis’ offensive line has been a strength most of the year, but it had one of its worst outings of the season in last week’s loss to the Falcons. Minshew was pressured on 17 of his 46 dropbacks as the Colts ranked 26th in pass-blocking efficiency.

Colts -3.5

Raiders +3.5

Meanwhile, running back Jonathan Taylor has a tough test against a Raiders run defense that leads the league in EPA under Pierce. Taylor was a tad rusty after a three-game absence, carrying the ball 18 times for 43 yards. At the same time, Las Vegas has allowed only a single rushing touchdown over the last four weeks, tied for the second fewest in the league.

One bright spot for the Colts is that they might get two key pieces back in wide receiver Michael Pittman and right tackle Braden Smith. However, it’s hard to think that’ll lift them over the hump in what’s clearly a tough matchup.

Now for the trends.

Las Vegas played on Christmas Day, and Minshew is only 1-5 ATS against teams on short rest dating back to 2020. The Colts are also 8-7 on the season despite having a minus-18 point differential.

According to Evan Abrams, teams with winning records with a negative point differential in November or later are 147-180-14 ATS (45%) over the last 20 seasons.

Colts vs Raiders Predictions & Picks

Each team’s offense has been inconsistent, but the Colts figure to have the tougher task of putting points on the board. They’re averaging the sixth-fewest points per game over the last three weeks (18.0). The Raiders defense is simply the best unit on the field and a primary reason to back Las Vegas covering the spread.

Our Pro report tracks big money coming in on the Raiders as they’re getting 67% of the money. They’re also one of the most popular picks among sharps and Action Network’s top experts.

I’m a big fan of this at +3.5, but if it somehow dips below that, consider it a strong lean.

Pick: Raiders +4 (Play to +3.5)

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