Lions vs 49ers Anytime Touchdown Props: David Montgomery, Brandon Aiyuk, Sam LaPorta, Elijah Mitchell
NFL Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
| Picks |
|---|
| Detroit Lions |
| San Francisco 49ers |
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Detroit Lions
A lot will be made of Jared Goff playing on the road and how his numbers dip when playing outdoors. Of course, there’s plenty of data to support this, but the main pushback I’d have is this game will be played in the Bay Area.
Goff, who played collegiate ball at Cal, and the Lions won’t be subject to cold temperatures and a freezing football, which means we can’t grade the offense based on how it fared when playing in cities like Chicago or Green Bay.
That being said, Goff requires time to throw and this game will come down to whether his offensive line can protect him. Easier said than done, but we saw last week that while the 49ers were able to generate some pressure against the Packers, they still couldn’t get to Jordan Love. San Francisco ultimately finished with no sacks.
I wrote about this on Monday, but we need to be seriously considering rookie Sam LaPorta to score. He’s around +225 and my cutoff to bet him is +200 or better.
The rookie led all TEs in TDs during the regular season and was fifth in receiving yards. Even with a balky knee brace, he’s still been very productive with 12 catches and one TD through two playoff games. Goff has repeatedly looked for him in the red zone with five targets inside the 20 combined against the Rams and Buccaneers.
The 49ers' pass defense is strong (fourth in DVOA), but we’ve seen in the playoffs that those strengths become less pronounced and emphatic as the level of competition increases. Love and the Packers had five red-zone trips but only managed two passing TDs, with one going to TE Tucker Kraft. The Lions were second in the NFL in red-zone TD % during the regular season (63%) (behind the 49ers), so I expect Detroit to be much more efficient on that side of the field.
Another angle would be to keep betting on David Montgomery at +170. I know he didn’t score last week, but he still had two goal-line carries and has a TD in 12-of-16 games this season (including the playoffs).
He’s had minus odds to score in 14-of-16 games if you include the postseason. If the Lions get within the 10-yard line, they’ve been pretty predictable by giving Montgomery goal-line carries. If that doesn't work, we usually see Goff target LaPorta.
Verdict: Bet David Montgomery (+175; PointsBet) and Sam LaPorta (+225; bet365)
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San Francisco 49ers
Much like last week, sportsbooks aren’t going to give you much value at the top for 49ers TD Scorers. Christian McCaffrey is still around -300 while Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are +120 at best. All three will definitely see their fair share of looks, but if Deebo Samuel is limited, it just adds a level of difficulty for each to score.
If you’re betting on a name-brand 49er, you either need to pay the premium or take another angle. How about we look at Aiyuk for a First Team TD Scorer at +500? Four of his seven touchdowns were the first Niners TD of the game. With the Lions ranking first in DVOA against the run, the 49ers will likely need to attack through the air, especially in the red zone.
One part of the Lions defense that the Niners and Aiyuk can exploit is the secondary. Detroit plays man coverage at a top-10 rate; Aiyuk has feasted against man coverage this season and has seen a lot of his receiving metrics — like yards per route run, average depth of target, first read and target share — all go up against man as opposed to zone. That doesn’t bode well for the the Lions, who finished the regular season 23rd in DVOA against WR1s and 24th in DVOA against deep passes.
In the playoffs, we’ve seen Puka Nacua and Mike Evans score long TDs against Detroit. If you include those playoff games, the Lions have allowed an opposing WR to score the first touchdown in 9-of-19 games (47%), with six of those to WR1s (31%). Everyone is going to be on McCaffrey's First TD, so this is me zigging when everyone else is zagging.
Another angle that may not bear fruit but remains hard to overlook is RB2 Elijah Mitchell. He didn’t have a carry against Green Bay with McCaffrey getting all the backfield work, but in a run-first offense, Mitchell shouldn’t be +550.
I don’t care that the Lions ranked first in DVOA against the run during the season. Rachaad White averaged almost six yards per carry and scored a receiving TD off a screen. For me, Mitchell is McCaffrey insurance in case McCaffrey gets injured, needs a breather or the game becomes a blowout in favor of San Francisco.
