In the penultimate game of the season, the San Francisco 49ers host the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game. The winner gets a trip to Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas and a shot at winning the Super Bowl.
San Francisco has been among the NFL’s elite all season, though its win in the Divisional Round wasn’t pretty. The 49ers staved off the Packers, but lost Deebo Samuel to injury early in the first quarter. Samuel has been cleared to play on Sunday, but at what capacity remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, the Lions defended home field with back-to-back wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So, this is their first road game of the playoffs.
With an over/under of 52.5 total points, this is expected to be a high-scoring bout. So, let’s play into that narrative for my NFC Championship Game SGP. Here’s my Lions vs 49ers same game parlay.
Lions vs 49ers Same Game Parlay: +525 SGP for the NFC Championship Game (bet365)
- Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Receptions
- Brandon Aiyuk Over 78.5 Receiving Yards
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 83.5 Receiving Yards
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Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Receptions
Instead of backing Christian McCaffrey on the ground, let’s back the 49ers star through the air.
The Lions are the No. 1 team in defensive DVOA against the run, giving up just 3.6 yards per carry. However, we’ve seen the blueprint to breaking down this unit, which has been consistently torched in the passing game.
Deebo Samuel is back, but who knows how limited the gadget receiver will be. He missed nearly the entire Divisional Round bout with a shoulder injury, and that led to a boost in opportunities for McCaffrey, who saw 12 targets (seven receptions).
I don’t expect double-digit targets for McCaffrey again, but I expect San Francisco to find ways to get the ball in his hands. The Lions generate a ton of pressure, so quick dumpoffs are certainly an option.
But above all, I trust Kyle Shanahan to be creative and get McCaffrey the ball – something he’s done repeatedly as one of the best head coaches in the NFL.
McCaffrey has gone over 4.5 receptions in three of his last four games and the only under came when he left early against Washington with a calf injury. The superstar averages 5.6 targets per game, but that also takes into consideration multiple blowout wins in which he wasn’t needed as often.
This game should be different. The Lions are more than capable of keeping the game close and their front seven shouldn’t budge in the run game. Instead, look for McCaffrey to make his splash as a receiver, where he is just as elite.
Brandon Aiyuk Over 78.5 Receiving Yards
Doubling up on the 49ers' passing game is never a bad thing, especially considering the Lions have been torched through the air of late.
Last week, I was all over Mike Evans’ receiving yards prop. He went over by halftime and finished with 147 yards. That continued a trend of Detroit really struggling against top receiving options.
Look at recent history. Before Evans went off, Puka Nacua racked up 181 receiving yards in the Wild Card Round. To end the season, Justin Jefferson finished with 192 and 141 yards in a three-week stretch. And sandwiched between Jefferson’s excellence was Ceedee Lamb’s 227-yard performance.
Samuel being limited should only help Brandon Aiyuk in a perfect buy-low spot. Aiyuk had just 32 receiving yards against the Packers, but he is still the top option in a San Francisco passing attack that ranks No. 1 in passing DVOA.
Aiyuk is explosive and more than capable of dominating opposing defenses. He put up 100-plus yards against an elite Baltimore Ravens defense. He’s finished over the century mark in 7-of-17 games (41%), and that includes a meaningless Week 18 game against the Rams.
If you want to get crazy and bet some alternate lines, I wouldn’t blame you. The Lions are 24th against the deep ball and really struggle when it comes to limiting explosive plays.
Oh, and they deploy man at a very high rate. That’s where Aiyuk has absolutely dominated, posting 3.72 yards per route run against man coverage. That is fifth in the NFL among receivers who have caught six or more passes against man coverage.
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Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 83.5 Receiving Yards
The 49ers' pass defense is among the NFL’s best, but they are most vulnerable in the slot, where Amon-Ra St. Brown lines up on over 50% of the snaps.
The Lions often go as their star receiver does. He has gone over this prop in four of his last five games and fell just short in the other contest. He is a touchdown machine and Jared Goff’s go-to target when under duress.
San Francisco ranks inside the top five in defensive DVOA against the pass, but 10th against the slot. We have seen players like Zay Flowers (72 yards) and DeVonta Smith (96) find success, and they’re both a tier below St. Brown.
St. Brown’s versatility makes him a matchup nightmare and he’s blossomed in his third year. The Lions have certainly thrived indoors, but St. Brown has put up some dominant numbers outdoors.
Against an elite Ravens defense – No. 1 in defensive DVOA against the pass – St. Brown reached the century mark. He also added 72 in the season opener against a top-five Chiefs pass defense. Both of those games were on the road.
This is going to be a negative game script for Detroit, which enters as a 7- or 7.5-point 'dog depending on the sportsbook. Expect Goff to rely heavily on his explosive receiver as Detroit finds advantageous matchups out of the slot.
