Lions vs Buccaneers Best Bets: NFL Divisional Round (Saturday, Jan. 21)
A trip to the NFC Championship Game is on the line as we make our Lions vs Buccaneers best bets & picks for the NFL Divisional Round. We have you covered in a variety of markets, including a pick on the spread.
Click on a pick below to navigate this post.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Buccaneers vs. Lions
The Buccaneers are 8-1 against the spread on the road this season, including outright victories on their last three trips. Any team that has won six of their last seven games and has averaged 25.4 points per game along the way deserves more respect from the oddsmakers.
Oddly enough, the Lions defense has given up 25.4 points per game since their bye in Week 9. This is a defense that was lucky to escape last week's game against the Rams with a victory, given that they allowed 7.7 yards per play. Those kind of performances by Detroit's defense have not been uncommon as the unit finished the regular season 27th in yards per play allowed.
Detroit is 23rd in the league in defending the opposing team's top receiver. The connection between Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans should feast against a secondary that has allowed a 91.5 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks this season. No team in the playoffs were attacked with deep throws more often than the Lions were in the regular season (14.3%). I expect an aggressive game plan from Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales, which should result in another back and forth game in Detroit.
The Lions have been greater than a four-point favorite on six occasions this season, with their three covers in those games coming against the Broncos, Raiders, and Panthers.
I'd play the Bucs down to +6.
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Buccaneers vs. Lions
I'm sure you've seen all the numbers on Jared Goff in a dome and how the Lions have put up a lot of offense at home, and I am a believer that the roof makes all the difference for this offense.
The Lions offense has been fantastic this season at home and indoors, putting up huge numbers on a regular basis. Since the beginning of last season, Detroit has averaged 30 points per game in domes and has gone over this number in 14 of its last 24 games.
The Bucs defense has been solid in the second half of the season but have faced well -elow-average offensive opponents during that span (Carolina twice, Atlanta, New Orleans and Tennessee) along with several average offenses. Add in that the Lions will likely continue to be aggressive (like by going for it on fourth down often), and I would even hit this at 28.5.
Buccaneers vs. Lions
By Tony Sartori
Cade Otton exploded last week with eight catches on 11 targets for 89 yards. He led the Buccaneers in all three of those categories as Baker Mayfield kept feeding him the rock against an Eagles pass defense that looked lost.
We could see a similar performance on Sunday against the Lions, who ranked 20th in the league in yards allowed per game and 27th in passing yards allowed per game. Their underlying metrics were even worse at 30th in expected points contributed by passing defense per game.
If Otton is going to get the same amount of attention from Baker as he did last week, his touchdown prop is very live against this poor pass defense, especially at such a long number of +370. That line is available via FanDuel, a price that is significantly bigger than the rest of the market.
Otton is second on the Bucs in receiving touchdowns this season, and we could see him add to that total on Sunday. I'd play this number down to +350.
Buccaneers vs. Lions
We want rushing unders and passing overs here. Detroit may not be quite as stark, since the Lions have two good backs and the far better rushing attack and may also be playing with a lead. Still, it's hard not to like Amon-Ra St. Brown to have another big game.
St. Brown has caught 90 yards in 11-of-17 games already this season, hitting this over 65% of the time. That includes a monster line against the Bucs, with 12 catches for 124 yards and a score on 15 targets. These pass defenses allowed the third and fourth-most yards to receivers this season, and the Bucs have allowed 10 WRs already to hit 100 yards, plus three more at 90+ that would hit this prop.
Yards are always a bit less predictable with ARSB so I typically prefer receptions, but at 7.5 receptions that's a tough line that offers little value. I don't mind adding 6+ catches to a parlay boost — it's -350 but he's done it in all but three games — otherwise, I'd rather sprinkle 10+ catches at +270 (bet365) or even 12+ catches if your book offers it, since he's done that three times, with one of those against the Bucs.
