Lions vs Buccaneers Odds, Picks, Player Props | NFL Best Bets
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | -275 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | +225 |
Lions vs Buccaneers Pick
The Buccaneers are 8-1 against the spread on the road this season, including outright victories on their last three trips. Any team that has won six of their last seven games and has averaged 25.4 points per game along the way deserves more respect from the oddsmakers.
Oddly enough, the Lions defense has given up 25.4 points per game since their bye in Week 9. This is a defense that was lucky to escape last week's game against the Rams with a victory, given that they allowed 7.7 yards per play. Those kind of performances by Detroit's defense have not been uncommon as the unit finished the regular season 27th in yards per play allowed.
Detroit is 23rd in the league in defending the opposing team's top receiver. The connection between Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans should feast against a secondary that has allowed a 91.5 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks this season. No team in the playoffs were attacked with deep throws more often than the Lions were in the regular season (14.3%). I expect an aggressive game plan from Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales, which should result in another back and forth game in Detroit.
The Lions have been greater than a four-point favorite on six occasions this season, with their three covers in those games coming against the Broncos, Raiders, and Panthers.
I'd play the Bucs down to +6.
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Lions vs Buccaneers Player Props
Sam Laporta
Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Listed as questionable ahead of this game, I’m fully expecting Sam LaPorta to be a go on Sunday, just as he was last week. He’s become a crucial part of this offense and the 6-foot-3 tight end is a big body that can be dangerous in the red zone as well as in the open field.
His line for this one is at 40.5, not a small amount, but a number that he’s covered in four of his last eight games. What pushes it over the edge and makes it a must-bet is the Bucs’ inability to stop TEs this season.
In the regular season the Bucs gave up 1,077 yards to the position, the third-highest total in the NFL.
Pick: Sam Laporta Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Cade Otton
Anytime TD (+360)
As a Cade Otton truther, I have to go back to him again this week after a huge breakout game in the Wild Card round.
Otton led the Bucs with 11 targets and eight catches to go with two red-zone targets but, a recurring theme, a drop in the end zone. Similar to Tampa Bay, the Lions rank seventh in DVOA against TEs but are bottom 10 in targets, catches and yards allowed.
At +350 or better, I’m willing to take another swing on Otton in what could be a trailing game script for the Buccaneers on the road.
