The NFL is finally back. Take it all in because all those months of waiting have come to an end and there’ll be football every Thursday from now through December.
Now, it's time to cook up a Lions vs. Chiefs same game parlay for Thursday Night Football at Arrowhead Stadium.
What better way to welcome the new season than with a same game parlay in a primetime matchup between two electric offenses? The Chiefs, however, may not be the same juggernaut as Travis Kelce is reportedly out with a knee injury. The good news for K.C. is that Patrick Mahomes is still under center for the defending Super Bowl champions.
Can Mahomes cover against the fan-favorite Lions without his right-hand man (not to mention Chris Jones, who's holding out)? Head coach Dan Campbell enters Year 2 with lofty expectations as Detroit sits favored atop the NFC North.
I used bet365 to put together this three-leg Lions vs. Chiefs same game parlay.
Jerick McKinnon 25+ Receiving Yards (-125)
This was a prop that I had circled before Kelce’s injury and it’s become an even more attractive option given the news. Jerick McKinnon was re-signed in free agency for a reason and his effectiveness in the passing game is much needed in an inexperienced Chiefs offense.
Isiah Pacheco will likely be the feature back on Thursday night, but he is working back from a pair of surgeries. He returned to practice in late August and is good to go, but I could see a lesser workload for the Rutgers product.
Tack on the fact that Pacheco isn’t much of a receiving back — just 13 receptions in 17 games last season — and we should see more McKinnon, especially on third downs.
Kelce’s injury news also opens double-digit targets to be had — if he’s out — and even if he plays, it will not be at full health. Detroit is no slouch and could very well be leading throughout the game, which will force KC into passing down scenarios rather than running the clock out.
This entire game sets up to be a great opportunity for McKinnon to make his mark. In five of the Chiefs’ final seven games last year, McKinnon had 25+ receiving yards. He was targeted 4.2 times per game and that’s a number I expect at the very least come Thursday, if not more.
This sets up to be a McKinnon underneath/checkdown game and I’m all for his receiving yards prop on Thursday night.
David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)
Everyone wants a piece of the new Ferrari in Jahmyr Gibbs, but they’re forgetting about the good ol’ reliable Honda Accord in David Montgomery.
Gibbs and Montgomery are expected to split the workload in the backfield, similar to D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams a season ago. That would result in Gibbs becoming a change-of-pace back while Montgomery serves as the bruiser.
Montgomery was the ground-and-pound back in Chicago but lost many opportunities for goal-line touches because of his mobile quarterback Justin Fields. That won’t happen in Detroit behind Goff, as he’ll receive most of the looks inside the 10.
Taking over Williams' role is a crucial one. He scored 17 touchdowns last season and had the second-most touches inside the red zone in the NFL (62). The Detroit offense is smooth and efficient — we saw that last year with Goff’s end-of-season performance once the team got comfortable — and they should be able to move the ball on Thursday.
While the talk of the town is Kelce’s status, Chris Jones’ absence is also massive. He is not only one of the most dominant pass rushers in all of football, but he also plays a large role in the run game, too.
Rather than attacking Montgomery in the rushing yards market, I like going for his anytime touchdown prop. Gibbs could play a large role as the change-of-pace back, but they brought Montgomery in via free agency for a reason. I’m fully expecting him to receive the ball close to the goal line.
Lions +6.5 (-150)
Kelce and Jones’ potential absences play a huge role in this handicap. Aside from Patrick Mahomes, those are the two best players on either team.
Even if Kelce plays, it won’t come at 100%. Both leave large shoes to be filled, and because of it, I’m expecting a down-to-the-wire game and potential Detroit win.
Let’s start with Kelce. With JuJu Smith-Schuster’s departure to New England, if Kelce were to miss Thursday night, KC would be left with their next-best option being Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He had just 687 yards and two touchdowns in 17 games last year.
He’ll be joined by Skyy Moore and rookie Rashee Rice, neither of whom is accustomed to a full-time NFL role. The aforementioned Jerick McKinnon will likely play a pivotal role, but that offense lacks the firepower it once had with Kelce sidelined.
And now Jones. Per Sports Info Solutions, Jones’ absence caused a 4.4% drop in pressure rate and 1.3% drop in sack rate last season. He was also an above-average run stuffer, given a 78 grade by PFF.
I’m a believer in this Lions offense and Jared Goff. We saw them get comfortable as the season ended. In the final nine games of 2022, Goff had a 68.3% completion rate, with 2,400 yards and 15 touchdowns. He didn’t throw an interception.
Yes, Mahomes is still Mahomes. But there’s only so much he can do with an inexperienced team around him and a defense missing its key cog. Rather than a full-on outright, I prefer riding the line movement and taking Detroit to cover on Thursday night.
Lions vs. Chiefs Same-Game Parlay
- McKinnon 25+ Receiving Yards (-125)
- Montgomery ATD (+120)
- Lions +6.5 (-150)
Those three legs get us to a +475 same-game parlay to kick off the season.
