Packers vs Lions Odds
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -135 |
Packers vs. Lions odds have Detroit installed as a road favorite on Thursday Night Football.
First place in the NFC North is on the line. Both teams are reportedly going to have some key players active for this game in Packers RB Aaron Jones and WR Christian Watson, while the Lions are expected to have LT Taylor Decker and RB David Montgomery available.
Let's make our Packers vs. Lions pick to kick off Week 4.
Packers vs. Lions
Matchup Analysis
The Packers are hoping to get RB Aaron Jones and WR Christian Watson back for this game, but their statuses are still up in the air on a short week. Jones has missed the last two games, while Watson is yet to play this season.
Green Bay did already rule out the left side of its offensive line and top two linemen: LT David Bakhtiari and LG Elgton Jenkins. RT Zach Tom is also questionable with a knee injury. If Tom is ruled out or limited, it will be another massive blow to this unit. That’d leave it up to either Yosh Nijman or Caleb Jones to be tasked with blocking Lions pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson.
Detroit ranks 10th in pressure rate, but with the significant issues on the Packers offensive line, it’s safe to assume that Jordan Love may face a higher pressure rate than usual in this game. Love ranked seventh in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt with a clean pocket, but he’s 28th out of 34 qualified QBs when facing pressure.
The Packers offense, as a whole, is due for some regression. Green Bay’s 27 yards per drive ranks 11th worst in the NFL, but the team has averaged the 10th-most points per drive.
A huge part of that success is that the Packers are second in red-zone touchdown percentage at 78%. Odds are they end up closer to the league average of 56% moving forward.
Make Your Packers vs. Lions Pick at FanDuel
The Lions are also dealing with their share of injuries on the offensive line, with two starters — Halapoulivaati Vaitai and Matt Nelson — already ruled out.
Detroit has the depth to overcome those injuries, but LT Taylor Decker and LG Jonah Jackson are also questionable. It would be a blow if one or both of those players were ruled out, especially Decker.
The Packers rank eighth in the NFL in pressure rate. Missing more than two starting offensive linemen could increase the amount of pressure that QB Jared Goff would face.
That wouldn’t be ideal for the Lions, since Goff ranks in the top four in success rate and EPA per play with a clean pocket, but he’s outside of the top 33 when facing pressure. Goff also has seen a bigger drop-off than most QBs in efficiency when playing outdoors or on the road in his career.
Packers vs. Lions
Betting Picks & Predictions
I’m in line with the spread of Lions -1.5 as of Wednesday night, but we could see some significant movement on that front when we get more clarity on the likes of Jones, Watson, CB Jaire Alexander and Decker.
I think this game sets up well for the under for a few reasons: the injuries to both offensive lines, Green Bay’s incoming regression in the red zone and both Love and Goff’s inefficiency when facing pressure.
This total also has a Luck Total grade of -9.1, which is calculated using our Action Network Luck Rankings. That puts this as the second-lowest grade of Week 4. The fact that this one is so low signals potential value on the under and aligns with some of the key metrics I’m expecting to regress, which will result in lower scoring moving forward.
Also, the referee assigned to this game is Alan Eck, who’s in his first season as an NFL ref. The over has gone 2-1 in his first three games. I don’t blindly go off referee trends, especially with a sample size that small, but I evaluate the penalties their crews call more or less frequently than the league average. So far, Eck seems to be right down the middle and probably won’t favor the over or under if his crew’s trends hold.
The spread and total are moving for this game, so be sure to use our up-to-the-minute NFL odds page to be sure you're getting the best numbers possible.
I would bet this under down to 45.
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