Sunday Night Football Week 18 Odds & Picks
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John LanFranca: While the Lions have been one of the few teams who've had more games go over the total in the year of the under, they've only had to embrace outdoor elements on five occasions.
It's well-documented Jared Goff doesn't thrive outdoors, and this game will be played in temperatures below freezing at kickoff. Goff has played only four career games in freezing temps, and his teams have averaged only 17.5 points in those contests.
The Packers defense ranks as the third-best defense (according to DVOA) over the past four weeks. They also match up well with the Lions, as Goff had his lowest yardage output and worst yards per attempt mark in their first meeting (5.3 YPA) in Week 9.
Outdoor divisional unders are 33-15 (69%) against the spread on the season. Games at night have cashed tickets on the under at a 64.1% rate, with 14 of the last 16 staying under the posted total (since Dec. 1).
While the Packers defense limits the Lions offense, I expect Matt Lafleur to be orchestrating a gameplan indicative of a team playing not to lose. The slow start by both teams will carry us the rest of the way as we cruise to a total well below 49.
Pick: Under 49.5 | Bet to 49 |
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Ricky Henne: I’ve been on the AJ Dillon train for over a month, and you best believe I’m hopping on board yet again.
The running back has scored a touchdown in five straight games heading into Sunday night's win-or-go-home tilt against the Lions, and I more than like his chances of finding pay dirt yet again.
Let’s look at the big picture before zeroing in on why I’m bullish on Dillon.
The Packers and Lions squared off in Week 9, with the Lions winning 15-9. However, this is a totally different Green Bay offense than the one Detroit saw that day. Up through that point, Green Bay had one of the most disappointing offenses in the league, averaging only 17.1 points per game. But in the seven games since that embarrassing loss, the Packers have put it all together, averaging over 28.6 PPG.
Dillon is one of several key figures responsible for this turnaround, and now he faces a Lions defense that's giving up the third-most PPG (25.7). Detroit’s pitiful scoring defense isn’t the main reason I like Dillon in this spot. Rather, it’s the number of yards they give up week in and week out.
The Lions are last in that regard, surrendering 398.7 yards per game. As a result, teams have entered the red zone 56 times against them, which is only four fewer than Arizona’s league-high 60. The opposition’s scored a touchdown on 64.3% of those chances, which is fifth in the NFL.
Although he’s in a true time share with Aaron Jones, Dillon is Green Bay’s preferred back in the red zone, scoring six rushing touchdowns to Jones’ two. Not only that, but the closer Green Bay gets to the goal line, the more they rely on Dillon. His 16 carries inside the five are exactly double Jones’ eight totes. When they get inside the five, Dillon has a 9-2 edge.
Add it all up and Dillon is in a great spot to reach the end zone for a sixth straight game. I was lucky enough to grab this at +130. As of Saturday night, most books were offing a Dillon anytime TD between +105 to +115, and I’d happily scoop it up at those odds as well.
