I made my Musgrave and Love picks on Wednesday night since they were the best bets available on the odds board. We didn't have clarity on the Packers and Lions' injury situations, so some players were not available.
Reports indicate that Lions RB David Montgomery, Packers RB Aaron Jones and WR Christian Watson are all going to play on Thursday Night Football. Those are noteworthy offensive players who change the trajectory of Lions vs. Packers.
With that, I've added one pick from the initial bets on Musgrave and Love. Continue reading below for clarity on all three players and where I stand on them heading into Lions vs. Packers.
Aaron Jones
Anytime Touchdown Scorer +155
Jones is reportedly set to return after missing Weeks 2 and 3 due to a hamstring injury. He gets a primetime matchup at Lambeau Field to make his return.
Jones was excellent in Week 1, when he scored twice and powered the Packers offense to a win over the Bears. In his absence, A.J. Dillon has not looked good, averaging 2.6 yards per carry. Dillon will still get some carries with Jones active, but he's a non-factor in the passing game.
This is a mouthwatering matchup, historically, for Jones.
Jones has two games in his career with three or more touchdowns against the Lions, which came back in 2020 and '21.
In two games last season against Detroit, Jones' Anytime Touchdown Scorer odds were -160 and -130. Getting +155 here is something we can't ignore.
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Luke Musgrave
Anytime Touchdown Scorer +300
Writer's note: I would consider Musgrave more of a lean with the news about Jones and Watson playing this game. My favorite Anytime Touchdown Scorer bets for this game are Jones and Jordan Love.
Another week, another positive regression candidate.
Musgrave has been a solid look for Jordan Love through Love's three games as the Packers’ starting quarterback. The rookie tight end has 15 targets so far this season, and he leads the team’s tight ends in snaps.
This Lions defense has allowed only one touchdown to opposing tight ends, but the unit is last in catches and receiving yards allowed to the position, as well as DVOA against TEs this season.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Jordan Love
Anytime Touchdown Scorer +500
Love scored with his legs in the Packers’ Week 3 comeback win over the Saints, and he did so on third down in the red zone in a big spot in the game.
I’m not sold on a few things about the Packers’ ground game so far. I don’t trust Aaron Jones’ health, and A.J. Dillon has not looked great with a 2.7 yards-per-carry average.
I’m also not sold on the Lions defense, which allowed two goal-line touchdowns in Week 2 to Kenneth Walker.
At +500, this is worth grabbing in a primetime spot since Love was +400 in Week 3.
