It’s tough to pick a side in this NFC North showdown between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers, so I’m skipping the side altogether and targeting some player props.
If you’re looking for different ways to bet on NFL player props, I recommend PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states, including states where online betting is unavailable.
Let’s dive into my Sunday Night Football PrizePicks card, where we’re backing both running backs.
Jamaal Williams
Over/Under 0.5 Pass/Rush/Receiving Touchdowns
The reasoning behind this pick is straightforward: Jamaal Williams is one rushing touchdown away from tying Barry Sanders’ franchise single-season record.
Williams’ previous single-season high for touchdowns was four, which came during his rookie season with the Green Bay. But this year, he’s been a huge part of one of the most potent offenses in the NFL.
The Lions want to get him in the end zone, and it’d be even more magical if he broke the record against “that ex-girlfriend” who didn’t want him.
“They didn’t want me, like that ex-girlfriend. … I gotta go.” 😂
Lions’ Jamaal Williams on leaving the Packers via free agency
(via @Lions)pic.twitter.com/ujNjw3iP7Z
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 18, 2021
Additionally, a couple of Williams touchdowns could keep the Packers out of the playoffs. Talk about motivation.
As for actual on-field reasoning, it’s about the best matchup for William. The Packers have one of the worst rush defenses in the league, ranking 31st in rush defense DVOA and are top 10 in both rushing yards (2,268) and rushing touchdowns (16) allowed.
The Lions possess a high-octane offense. We know they’ll get red-zone opportunities against an exploitable Packers defense. The only person who should see those opportunities is the bruising, 224-pound Williams, especially after seeing those opportunities all season.
I’ll bank on him getting at least a rushing touchdown, and I am happy to put it in my PrizePicks parlay.
Pick: Over 0.5 pass+rush+rec TDs
Aaron Jones
Over/Under 63.5 Rushing Yards
While the Lions have a potent offense that's a sure bet to produce yards and opportunities for Williams, their defense is another story. Combine the two, and Detroit games become some of the highest volume this season.
The Lions are 27th in rush defense DVOA and have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards. They’ve recently allowed …
- 102 yards to Justin Fields
- 165 yards to D’Onta Foreman
- 125 yards to Chuba Hubbard
- 72 yards to Devin Singletary
- 57 yards to Khalil Herbert
So on and so forth.
In Week 18’s quasi-playoff matchup for Green Bay, I like Aaron Jones to step up and put together a big performance.
Jones has been inconsistent all season, but has recently seen a small boost in carries. He had 17 against the Rams and 14 against the Vikings, combining for 200 rushing yards in those games.
While he failed to get over this line in the early season clash with the Lions, that was a different, inferior Green Bay offense. Jones should get a push from his offensive line and manage enough YPC to crush this number.
I’ll take a shot with Jones on PrizePicks.
Pick: Over 63.5 rush yards
