In the final game of the 2022-23 NFL regular season, the Green Bay Packers welcome the Detroit Lions to Lambeau Field in an NFC North bout with heavy playoff implications.
For both teams, a season that once seemed lost has made a complete 180. The Packers, who sat at 4-8 and lost seven of eight entering December, ripped off four straight wins and can steal a Wild Card berth with a win.
The Lions began 1-6 and have finished 7-2. Their playoff hopes rest on Seattle — if the Seahawks win, Detroit is eliminated — but they can still ruin the Packers’ postseason dreams regardless.
This is setting up to be one of the better primetime games this season as the Packers enter as five-point favorites with a total nearing 50.
Here’s a same-game parlay for Sunday Night Football:
Christian Watson
Over 52.5 Receiving Yards & Anytime TD
Christian Watson is off the injury report and is a full go, so I’m going back to the well here without hesitation.
The big-play receiver has a great matchup against a Detroit defense that ranks last in coverage, per PFF. The Lions primarily run man defense, and that’s Watson’s specialty.
While he hasn’t gone over this number once in the previous four weeks, the workload has been there. Watson has been targeted at least six times in six of the previous seven games. We’ve seen his home-run ability on the deep pass as he’s quickly become Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target.
Watson also didn’t play in the second half of the Packers’ Christmas game against the Dolphins, when he had 48 yards and a near-deep touchdown as Rodgers slightly overthrew him.
It wasn’t until Nov. 13 against Dallas when Watson finally came into his own. Since then, aside from last week’s blowout in a game he played limited snaps, Watson has either eclipsed 100 yards or come a few yards short of this 52.5 number.
This is the perfect spot for Watson to break the 50-yard mark once again. The Packers need a win for the postseason and Rodgers should have no issues airing it out to his favorite target against a horrendous pass defense.
Aside from the perfect matchup, Watson is also a consistent red-zone threat. He nearly had multiple touchdowns against Miami — stopped just short once and overthrown on that aforementioned fourth-down deep ball — and has seven touchdowns over the last two months.
Look for Watson to bounce back on Sunday night and make a statement as Green Bay gears up for the playoffs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Under 70.5 Receiving Yards
Fading a star in primetime is never fun, but this is a great spot against a Packers defense that’s speciality is stopping the short pass.
Green Bay is the fourth-best defense against short passes and that’s primarily where St. Brown operates. His aDOT is just 6.4 yards.
The last time St. Brown faced the Packers, he finished with just four receptions for 55 yards. It was his third-worst performance of the season — and that came despite a 25-yard reception.
There’s also a chance that Seattle wins against Los Angeles — the Seahawks are favored by six — and that would end Detroit’s season. While I still expect them to play hard and look to end the Packers' season regardless, this may also open the door for work to be distributed more to younger players or toward contract incentives.
Kalif Raymond is seven catches and 50 yards short of his incentives. Jameson Williams hasn’t played much but could see some extended run as he works back from injury.
This just isn’t a great matchup for St. Brown. Unless Jared Goff peppers him — always a possibility — I don’t see how he goes over this number. Our Action Network projections have him closer to 60.5 receiving yards, putting some value toward the under.
Romeo Doubs
Under 29.5 Receiving Yards
While Christian Watson and Allen Lazard fare much better against man coverage, Romeo Doubs is the opposite. He is a great play against zone defense, but has his issues at times against man.
Our Action Network projections have Doubs at 23.1 receiving yards and just 2.4 catches, so there’s some wiggle room here with an under play. He’s hit or miss when it comes to eclipsing 30 yards, being held under in five of 11 games.
The Packers are favorites by nearly a touchdown, which should translate to a positive game script and more touches for Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. With Watson healthy and the Packers having every weapon at their disposal, I’m not sure Doubs will receive as many looks.
He played just 31 snaps last week, and that was with Watson limited. Doubs has big-play ability — he’s gone for a 20-plus yard catch in seven games — but I’d expect more of the deep throws to go to the proven Lazard and high-upside Watson.
I’m trusting Action projections on this one in a game I think the Packers should be in control throughout. There’s a four percent edge to Doubs’ under on Sunday night.
The Parlay (+1297)
- Christian Watson O52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Christian Watson Anytime TD (+145)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown U70.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Romeo Doubs U29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Pick: 4-Leg Same Game Parlay (+1297) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
BONUS PLAY
If you want to get real crazy, Robert Tonyan’s anytime touchdown odds are +330 at FanDuel. He scored last week and the Lions have given up the most touchdowns to tight ends this season (11). Tonyan has scored against Detroit in their previous three matchups. That would take the same-game parlay to (+6591).
Pick: 5-Leg Same Game Parlay (+6591) |
