Injuries are once again leading to props being withheld across the board for Lions vs. Packers on Thursday Night Football.
Reports, however, indicate that Christian Watson, Aaron Jones and David Montgomery will all suit up tonight. For Watson, it will be his season debut.
Given the limited prop availability, Thursday night feels like a perfect time to take a long shot.
Always be sure to be responsible when betting parlays — especially long shots — but if you want to sit back, have some fun and sweat out a big payout, I’ve got the same game parlay for you.
The odds add up to +1160 at bet365 and include key players in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jordan Love and Josh Reynolds.
Josh Reynolds 50+ Receiving Yards (+175)
Throw last week’s game out the window. The game script changes drastically when playing the Falcons — they run the ball at the highest rate in the league — and Jared Goff completed passes to just four different receivers.
But in the two games prior, Reynolds really soared as a reliable target for Goff. He racked up 80 yards in the season opener and scored two touchdowns and had 66 yards the following week.
All the attention will be toward stopping Amon-Ra St. Brown and all the hype is surrounding rookie tight end Sam LaPorta after last week’s 84 yards. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is trending toward not playing, which gives Reynolds an excellent matchup against a thin Packers secondary.
I expect Thursday to be a back-and-forth game, so there shouldn’t be a heavy reliance from either side on the ground. While Reynolds was MIA against Atlanta, his RT% remained near 90; that number should rise against GB, too.
This is a good time to buy low on Reynolds. He’s broken both a 22-yard and 33-yard reception in the first two weeks of the season and has big-play ability. He was targeted 13 times in those opening two games with a yard per route run rate of 2.2 or higher.
No one is talking about Reynolds, who has been over this number in 66% of games thus far, and that’s the perfect time to strike.
Jordan Love Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
While the return of Watson and Jones does help Jordan Love in an overall sense, his scramble ability makes him a valuable asset here.
In his first three games, Love had 14 attempts and 74 yards. He had a 20+ yard gain in each of his last two games, and the one time he didn’t go over this number was in a blowout win over Chicago.
Here’s how QBs have fared against Detroit through three weeks:
- Patrick Mahomes — 6 carries, 48 yards
- Geno Smith — 3 carries, 20 yards
- Desmond Ridder — 2 carries, 3 yards
I expect Love to fare way better than Ridder, who is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. In a game that’s expected to be back and forth with a lot of pressure from both defensive front sevens, I’m expecting Love to use his legs to evade pressure and escape downfield for multiple big gains.
I agree with Grant Neiffer’s best bet of Love’s over. As he pointed out, Detroit gave up the most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks last season (700). The next closest: 525.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown (+140)
Death, taxes and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Or something like that? This is Goff’s favorite receiver, and he’s been targeted 28 times through the first three weeks of the season. While he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1, I like his chances tonight.
Alexander is unlikely to suit up for Green Bay. That leaves St. Brown in a huge advantage against a Packers secondary that has just two healthy CBs (Keisean Nixon and Rasul Douglas). Carrington Valentine is questionable.
The targets are staggered toward St. Brown in the red zone, too. FantasyPros has St. Brown as the leading receiver with four targets. The next best? Reynolds, LaPorta and Marvin Jones Jr. with one apiece.
While Montgomery is expected to play, I’m not sure how effective he’ll be or if he’ll be limited in his first game back. Rather than taking a stab at him or Gibbs, I’m trusting Goff’s No. 1 receiver to find the end zone.
Through three weeks, St. Brown is 11th in targets and inside the top 10 in receiving yards. He’s a workhorse receiver who is dominant in short-yardage situations, a plus when the Lions find themselves inside the 10.
Lions vs. Packers Same Game Parlay (+1160)
- Josh Reynolds 50+ Receiving Yards (+175)
- Jordan Love Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown (+140)
