Lions at Redskins Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Lions -3.5
- Over/Under: 41.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
Odds as of Thursday evening.
It's been tough sledding for Redskins rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who enters this Week 12 matchup as a home underdog to the visiting Detroit Lions. So far the public is heavily backing the road team with more than 80% of the betting tickets.
Should you follow the public in this game?
Our experts analyze every angle of this matchup, complete with a comparison of the current odds to Sean Koerner’s projections and more.
Lions-Redskins Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Redskins
The Lions are expected to be without Matthew Stafford (again), giving Jeff Driskel another start. They're also banged up on the back end with safety Tracy Walker (knee) missing both practices. Walker boasts a top-10 pass-coverage grade among qualifying safeties (per Pro Football Focus).
The Redskins could get Chris Thompson (toe) back after he's been limited in practice, but he likely isn't that appealing from a fantasy standpoint with Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice also in the mix.
Peterson missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, but he followed a similar protocol last week then ended up playing. His practice status on Friday will be more telling. Paul Richardson (shoulder) should also be back after he practiced in full on Thursday. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Lions Pass Catchers vs. Redskins Pass Defense
Don’t be fooled by Driskel starting — the biggest mismatch in this games still centers around Detroit’s passing game.
Few teams boast the depth of talent the Lions have at receiver. The trio of Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola provide the inexperienced Driskel with reliable targets all over the field.
Golladay ranks seventh among all wideouts with 18.7 yards per reception and first overall with 26 deep targets (per PlayerProfiler). Jones has excelled in the red zone, ranking 10th at the position with 14 red-zone receptions. And finally, Amendola has been highly efficient, ranking seventh with 17.5% of the targets per snap.
In addition, Detroit features the uber-athletic T.J. Hockenson at tight end, who has the second-highest yards per reception (13.4) among all tight ends. The Redskins rank 26th in pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders), and have allowed an average of five catches and 56 yards per game to opposing tight ends.
While Quinton Dunbar is currently PFF's highest-rated cornerback, his Washington teammates Jimmy Moreland (93rd), Josh Norman (106th) and Fabian Moreau (110th) are all among the league's worst. — Mike Randle
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Lions -2.5
- Projected Total: 41
This matchup features two teams I backed against the spread last week and lost.
The Redskins were brutal, but a lot of that result had to do with Darnold and the Jets turning into the underrated team I pegged them as heading into 2019. Meanwhile, the Lions are likely without Stafford for at least one more game. I had him being worth 3-4.5 points to the spread, but I’m bumping that up to 4-5.5 points.
Driskel has put up solid fantasy numbers in garbage time, but it’s clear it’s a bit egregious to have him be a 3.5-point road favorite in this spot.
The Redskins are a below-average team that's better equipped to pull off a win in what’s perceived to be a tight matchup. A close game would allow them to take the ball out of Haskins' hands and lean on their running game. Their defense was showing signs of improvement heading into the bye, which makes me think they bounce back against an inexperienced QB like Driskel.
Still, no matter how you slice it, these are two below-average teams and I’m willing to bite on the home squad getting a key number in +3.5 here. Books have been getting an onslaught of action on the Lions (see live public betting data here), so we’ll see if exposing +3 will start to draw some sharp action on Washington to balance the action a bit. I’m betting it does. — Sean Koerner
PRO System Match
The Redskins offense has been bad. Over their past three games, they’ve been held to 17 or fewer points.
As a result, more than 80% of spread tickets are on the Lions as small road favorites as of Thursday. While this may seem like a good time to fade the Redskins' inconsistent offense, history suggests otherwise.
Teams that haven’t been able to put up a lot of points recently can be undervalued as teams to regress to the mean throughout the season. This is especially true against opponents that may not know their tendencies or personnel as well as their divisional rivals.
This creates an excellent first-half betting opportunity. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 163-114-59 (59%) against the spread since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,511 following this strategy. — John Ewing
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
Expert Picks
Stuckey: Redskins +3.5
This is pretty simple: I'm fading Driskel on the road with no rushing attack whatsoever against a team that currently has the better overall defense.
The Redskins' offense isn’t pretty — their second-half touchdown of last week's blowout loss to the Jets was their first in more than a month — but I'll still take three and the almighty hook here against Driskel and a banged up Lions squad.
I’m not sure Haskins is the answer — and in fairness, he doesn’t have the most elite arsenal to work with on the outside. However, he should at least improve with experience whereas we already know what to expect from Driskel.
Plus, Haskins should have plenty of time against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in adjusted sack rate. That's even more important for Haskins who could get a little shaky when under immense pressure while at Ohio State.
The Redskins are now more of a power running team, which won't work most weeks in today’s NFL. But this is also a matchup where that approach can work against a Lions defense line that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in almost every advanced power metric.
The Skins can keep the chains moving here on the ground and I think their offense can do just enough to pull out this cover in what should be an ugly one. Hold your nose!
