Super Bowl LVI: Rams vs. Bengals
| Spread | Rams -4 |
| Total | 48.5 |
| Time | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
| Pregame NFL odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
With the Rams as moderate favorites (check real-time NFL odds here), it's less likely the Bengals jump out to an early lead. Still, it's worth preparing for.
Books tend to have bigger discrepancies in live lines when "less expected" events take place. Some hold more tightly to the original line, while some adapt more based on the game that's happening — rather than the one they expected.
This opens up bigger edges for live betting — particularly if we're willing to be flexible and think about the ways each team will likely play if the Bengals are leading.
How the Bengals attack on offense will be important here. For much of the season, they threw the ball at roughly the league expected rate (based on game situation, down and distance). However, they relied far more heavily on the pass down the stretch, including in the playoffs.
The Rams went the opposite direction, leaning more heavily on the run down the stretch. Of course, that was mostly in games they controlled. Expect them to open up the offense if playing from behind.
Defensively, the Rams are fairly neutral from a DVOA standpoint, ranking top-six against both the run and the pass. On the Bengals side, they're far more easily attacked through the air.
Each team's pace is also important to consider. Los Angeles is the third-fastest team in the league when trailing, compared to 11th overall. Cincinnati plays on the slower side regardless of game script. However, it's at their its fastest (23rd) when playing with a lead.
How Bengals Could Control 2022 Super Bowl
There are a few different ways the Bengals could get out to an early — or late — lead in the Super Bowl.
The ascendance of their passing offense chief is one of those ways. Joe Burrow has 12 touchdown passes over his last five games — despite not throwing one against the Titans — dating back to the regular season.
Cincinnati could start with the ball, and come out hot on offense. If that happens, any stalled drive from the Rams could put the Bengals in the driver's seat.
Look to see how the Bengals attack on offense once they have the lead if this happens. If the Bengals stay aggressive with deep passing, this is a very different game than if they try to control the ball and the clock.
Additionally, a turnover — particularly a defensive score — early on could tip this one toward the Bengals. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has led the league in pick-sixes thrown in each of the past two seasons.
The Rams have also been particularly turnover-prone down the stretch. They lost four in the Divisional Round against the Bucs and eight of their final three regular-season games.
What I'll Be Watching For
The most important factor before placing a bet is how the Bengals' offensive approach shifts, particularly if they're winning by multiple scores. Generally speaking, the Bengals getting out in front is a good thing for betting over on the live total.
In an ideal scenario, the Bengals would score a couple of times early while the Rams offense stalls — particularly if they're trying to establish the run. That would lead to a total that drops from the opening number but sets up nicely to bet the over.
Los Angeles is, and should continue to be, far more effective when throwing the ball. If it's forced to air it out more than usual, scoring should pick up for both teams.
As an added bonus, this scenario should result in quicker pace for both teams.
I'd also be looking to bet the over — even if it jumps slightly — if the Bengals pick up an early defensive score (including points following a turnover). Giving the ball right back to the Rams offense helps the cause, and Stafford traditionally stays aggressive after mistakes.
I'm also interested in betting the Rams spread or moneyline if they become the underdogs. While blindly firing any time it happens is probably ill-advised, if one book moves the Bengals to the favorites while the rest don't, that's a good sign.
Additionally, the Bengals trying to win the game on the ground (if playing with a lead) would push me to the Rams side. Cincinnati ranks 20th in offensive DVOA on the ground, and the Rams rank fifth defensively.
I'm expecting Cincinnati to stay aggressive, but it could let the Rams back in this one if it doesn't.
