Betting odds: Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions
- Spread: Rams -10
- Over/Under: 55
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
>> All odds as of Thursday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: With 80% of betting tickets, the Rams are the most popular pick of the week at the time of writing.
The line has dropped down to 9.5 several times since opening, but continues to bounce back to 10, as there has been two-sided sharp action depending on the number.
The Lions are receiving about 41% of dollars despite getting 20% of tickets (check here for updated data). — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: The 10-1 Rams are coming off a bye week. Whether that gives them an edge remains to be seen.
Since 2003, great teams (won at least 90% of their games) have gone 24-11 against the spread with at least 13 days between games. However, since the 2013-14 season, these same teams are only 5-6 ATS, according to our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing
Matthew Stafford and the Lions face the Rams, who are defeating their opponents by 9.7 PPG, the third-highest margin this season.
In Stafford’s career, he is 4-14-1 ATS (22.2%) when facing a team winning by more than a touchdown per game on the season, failing to cover the spread by 5.6 PPG and losing bettors 10.2 units.
Since 2003, Stafford is the least profitable quarterback in the NFL in this spot, including 1-9 straight up and 1-8-1 ATS when his opponent is also averaging at least 30 PPG (Rams average 35.5). — Evan Abrams
Did you know? For the second time in Stafford’s career, he has opened as double-digit home underdog. In 2009, Stafford opened as a 10.5-point home dog against the Packers and lost in Detroit, 34-12. — Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Rams wide receivers vs. Lions cornerbacks
Darius Slay has the speed (4.36-second 40-yard dash) to hang with Brandin Cooks (4.33), but there's hardly been anybody capable of stopping the Rams' premiere field-stretcher while indoors since he entered the league in 2014.
Cooks has posted an average line of 5.1 catches-72.4 yards-0.53 TDs in 32 career games inside compared to 4.8-70-0.35 in 37 career games outdoors.
Woods (in the slot) and Reynolds have more favorable matchups against Nevin Lawson and Mike Ford. Quarterbacks have posted absurd passer ratings of 115.4 and 118.8 against Lawson and Ford, respectively.
Only the Chiefs possess a higher combined explosive pass play rate than the Rams this week. While a run-heavy game plan is possible, it likely won’t be because the Lions were able to shut down the Rams’ passing game. — Ian Hartitz
Which team is healthier? Rams
The Lions won’t have Marin Jones (knee, IR) for the remainder of the season, and backup receivers Brandon Powell (Calf) and Bruce Ellington (back) aren’t 100% either. The offense will likely be without stud rookie running back Kerryon Johnson (knee) for another week.
Meanwhile, the only minor concern for the Rams entering this week was Todd Gurley (ankle), but head coach Sean McVay confirmed he’ll be a full go for Sunday. The Rams are also expected to welcome back No. 1 cornerback Aqib Talib (ankle) from injured reserve.
Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Hartitz
DFS edge: Kenny Golladay has taken over as the Lions' clear-cut No. 1 receiver with Marvin Jones (knee, IR) sidelined and Golden Tate in Philadelphia. Historically, Babytron has consistently balled out with the workload of a featured target.
His nine career games with more than five targets …
- 5-90-0
- 8-113-1
- 6-78-1
- 7-114-0
- 6-89-1
- 4-98-1
- 4-28-0
- 4-69-2
- 6-53-1
There's a chance that Talib (ankle) returns from IR this week, but it's unlikely he'll be used in shadow coverage. This means we can expect Golladay to run a decent portion of his routes against the ever-burnable Marcus Peters.
Golladay costs $6,700 on DraftKings and boasts a massive 29-point projected ceiling. — Hartitz
Bet to watch: Lions +10
Remember my three principles:
1. Look for lines that seem crooked or feel like the bookmakers are daring you to bet them.
2. Check the market. Is the money going in the same direction or the opposite direction of the side you want?
3. Look at the numbers.
This line immediately jumped out at me as being driven by recency bias. On Thanksgiving, the Lions lost to the Bears and didn’t cover as home dogs thanks to Stafford’s pick-six. But they hung in there against a Bears defense that is much better than what they will face with the Rams.
Still, thanks to a loss and the fact the Rams are, well, the Rams, the Lions opened as big home dogs. The public betting market is taking the bait, with 80% of the tickets coming in on Los Angeles. But the Rams defense is, well, not very good. Especially against Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks, a category that Stafford fits into.
Now I’ve got all three levels of my principles working in my favor. Go Lions. — Chad Millman
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
