Rams vs Packers Odds
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | -375 |
Coming into the season, finding a Rams vs Packers pick looked very juicy on paper with two teams that had high expectations. The 4-9 Rams with Baker Mayfield visiting the 5-8 Packers doesn't have the same intrigue, but that's why we have spreads and totals.
Plus, believe it or not, the Packers still have a path to the playoffs if they can find a way to win out. It's not the most difficult path you will ever see outside of a trip to Miami, with the other three all coming in Lambeau:
If the Packers do win out, their path to a postseason berth also requires getting help from teams playing the Panthers, Seahawks, Lions and Giants.
It's certainly not the most likely outcome, but the probability sat at around 10% heading into Sunday. But, hey, you never know in the NFL. Look no further than last year when the Raiders somehow made the postseason after being left for dead.
So, will the Packers take care of business at home following a bye, or will the undermanned Rams pull off the upset (or at least keep this within one score)?
Rams vs. Packers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Rams and Packers match up statistically:
Rams vs. Packers DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 26 | 23 | |
| Pass DVOA | 26 | 8 | |
| Rush DVOA | 26 | 32 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 11 | 14 | |
| Pass DVOA | 14 | 23 | |
| Rush DVOA | 7 | 5 | |
The Packers' offensive issues are well documented, but the defense has been burned by opposing rushing attacks all season. Through 14 weeks, Green Bay ranked 32nd in run defense DVOA, 32nd in rush success rate and 31st in rush EPA.
However, it should get a welcome break against a Rams squad that simply can't run the ball. Looking at those same three statistics, Los Angeles' offense ranks 26th, 29th and 32nd, respectively. Those numbers should only continue to get worse with all the injuries they've suffered at quarterback, wide receiver and offensive line.
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Everybody will remember Baker Mayfield's 98-yard game-winning touchdown against the Raiders in primetime, but don't forget the Rams only had three points with less than five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter against a horrendous defense that I have ranked as a bottom-three unit in the league.
In fairness, Mayfield didn't have much time to get a grasp of the playbook after basically getting off of a plane and into warmups. With 10 days to prepare for this game, he should have a much better handle of the offense.
However, I don't expect much production. Mayfield ranks 42nd out of 42 quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 snaps in CPOE+EPA composite. Yes, even worse than Zach Wilson.
- Zach Wilson: -0.005
- PJ Walker: -0.015
- Baker Mayfield: -0.024
Those numbers include a majority of snaps with Carolina, where he had a much better offensive line and skill position group than what the decimated Rams are fielding. Mayfield also isn't going to gash the Packers with his legs a la Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts in Green Bay's previous two contests. That duo combined for 228 rushing yards on 23 carries for an absurd average of 9.9 yards.
Given its complete inability to run the ball, I can't see many paths for Los Angeles to sustain drives against a Green Bay pass defense that ranks eighth in DVOA.
Betting Picks
As a result, that makes the L.A. team total under very appealing, especially since I don't think the Packers offense will run away and hide, which would open up more opportunities for the Rams to score, particularly in garbage time.
Despite the absence of Aaron Donald, Los Angeles' defense is well-coached and playing hard. Nose tackle Greg Gaines has stepped up in recent weeks and linebacker Bobby Wagner has suddenly found another gear.
While Green Bay might have its full complement of receivers for the first time, it's still an underwhelming group for a unit that just lacks explosiveness. The offense has also been held back by a lack of continuity along the offensive line, which will not be at full strength once again as star left tackle David Bakhtiari was ruled out.
In a matchup of two offenses that rank bottom five in situation-neutral pace, it's under or nothing even at a very low number. That said, I prefer the Los Angeles team total under. I have much more confidence in the lack of output we should see from the warm-weather, wounded Rams offense playing in the frozen tundra against a defense that matches up well with them.
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