Tutu Atwell Receiving Yards
| Prop | Atwell Over 33.5 Receiving Yards |
| Matchup | Rams vs. Packers |
| Day, Time | Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
Since getting drafted in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft over an offensive lineman, Tutu Atwell has had high expectations from the Rams' fan base.
The speedster out of Louisville was envisioned as a DeSean Jackson-like player in Sean McVay's system, but he's been buried in the depth chart, never getting an opportunity to shine.
Health has been an issue for the Rams during this largely disappointing season for the defending Super Bowl champs. The team lost key offensive players to the IR, including Cooper Kupp (ACL), Matthew Stafford (spinal cord contusion) and Allen Robinson (foot).
Since Week 12, after losing Robinson, Atwell has seen his highest productivity in the offense, averaging 5.3 targets on 40.4 receiving yards per game.
During this span, Atwell owns a 19.28% target share and 29.1% targets per route run percentage (22nd amongst all receivers). He has also run a total of 97 routes in the three weeks after running only 30 combined from Weeks 1-11.
In Week 14, the Rams rolled out Baker Mayfield off the waiver wire, and the chemistry between the two was worth noting. Atwell played a season-high 61% of the snaps and was targeted nine times for five catches and 50 yards. He also had 116 air yards, showing the potential is there.
The Packers own the league's worst DVOA defense against the run this season, but the Rams' 26th rush DVOA offense may not be enough to combat the weakness. As 7.5-point underdogs, Mayfield will undoubtedly find himself in situations where he must throw.
The second-year receiver is fast and "regularly reaches 21 miles per hour on a game day," according to Next Gen Stats. This helps with his 16.8 average depth of target and his ability to rack up yards after the catch.
While the Packers defend the passing game better than the run game, they're below average in big plays with the 22nd-best DVOA against deep passes.
Earlier this morning, I announced on Twitter that I locked in Atwell's over at 32.5 receiving yards. It will be cold in Lambeau tonight, but that should be fine for his production.
His underlying potential leads me to believe he will reach at least 40 yards tonight, so I'd take this up to 35.5.
Pick: Tutu Atwell Over 33.5 Receiving Yards
