The Los Angeles Rams (4-5) and New England Patriots (3-7) will face off in NFL Week 11 at 1 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The game will be broadcast live on FOX and can be streamed on platforms like YouTube TV.
The Rams are favored by 4 points over the Patriots (Rams -4) with the game total set at 43. The Rams are -210 to win outright, while the Patriots are +175 on the moneyline.
The Rams lost 23-15 to the Dolphins last week. Matthew Stafford threw for 293 yards but didn’t throw a touchdown, while Kyren Williams only rushed for 62 yards. The Patriots won 19-3 over the Bears last week. The Patriots ran for 144 yards while rookie Drake Maye threw a touchdown pass and averaged 7.4 yards per attempt.
Let's get into my Patriots vs Rams predictions and Week 11 NFL picks.
Rams vs. Patriots Expert Picks
Spread
Our PRO projections are in line with this spread, as is Sean Koerner, who projects this spread at Rams -4.5. With that, I have no pick agains the spread for Rams vs. Patriots.
Moneyline
While New England has won two of its last three games as an underdog and Los Angeles is coming off a loss as a home favorite, I'm not betting either team's moneyline.
Over/Under
The game total is where my pick is. Despite the action coming in on the over, we have multiple PRO trends that indicate there is value on the under.
My Pick: Under 43.5 (-110)
Rams vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -210 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +175 |
- Rams vs. Patriots spread: Rams -4
- Rams vs. Patriots over/under: 43 points scored
- Rams vs. Patriots moneyline: Rams -210, Patriots +175
- Rams vs. Patriots best bet: Under 43.5 (-110)
MyRams vs. Patriots best bet is on the under. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots Preview
Rams vs. Patriots may not be as points heavy as the market expects.
History says the Rams bounce back from their awful performance against the Dolphins. Our director of researcher, Evan Abrams, notes nobody’s better at Sean McVay on short rest — the Rams are 10-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last 11 on a short week.
Also, home favorites off a loss, who are then favored by a field goal or more on the road the next week, are 29-15-2 ATS since 2020.
However, don’t expect a track meet between a Rams offense that’s been a shell of what we know, and a Patriots rookie quarterback up against a fierce pass rush.
Injuries have certainly been key, but Los Angeles’ run game really hasn’t gotten going to open play-action down the field. The Rams are 18th in run DVOA and their stud receivers have struggled to separate.
New England’s athletic cornerbacks match up perfectly fine, and there hasn’t been much splash-play upside out of the tight end room.
The Rams defense is only getting better as their rookie tandem on the line develop. Chris Shula’s defense ranked 31st in the NFL in EPA during the first three weeks of the season, but they are quietly trending in a positive direction.
PRO models don’t see a lot of value in the over, and while it’s attracting 72% of the early tickets, it’s not going anywhere. I like the under down to 43.
My Pick: Under 43.5 (-110) | Bet to Under 43
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