Our NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — make their 2023 debut ahead of Week 2.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
After Week 1, the Philadelphia Eagles — last year's second-most lucky team — find themselves in a familiar spot at the top of the Luck Rankings. That comes in large part thanks to Darius Slay's 70-yard interception return for a touchdown, as well as the Patriots' struggles to convert solid drives into points. The Patriots had three drives ended on downs in Philly territory, with two of those drives ending inside the red zone.
For more on how our luck rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Our Action Network Luck Rankings are an important tool for handicapping NFL games. That's because teams that are at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings, or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent are 96-54-4 (64%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Without further ado, let’s dive into the Week 2 NFL Luck Rankings!
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage.
NFL Week 1 Luck Rankings
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 78.4% | |
| 2 | 69.2% | |
| 3 | 60.1% | |
| 4 | 55.9% | |
| 5 | 54.1% | |
| 6 | 40.6% | |
| 7 | 36.6% | |
| 8 | 35% | |
| 9 | 29.8% | |
| 10 | 27.8% | |
| 11 | 21.1% | |
| 12 | 16.9% | |
| 13 | 14.5% | |
| 14 | 8.2% | |
| 15 | 3.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | |
| 17 | -0.9% | |
| 18 | -4.1% | |
| 19 | -0.9% | |
| 20 | -15.4% | |
| 21 | -17.8% | |
| 22 | -22.1% | |
| 23 | -28.8% | |
| 24 | -30.8% | |
| 25 | -36% | |
| 26 | -37.6% | |
| 27 | -41.5% | |
| 28 | -55.1% | |
| 29 | -56.8% | |
| 30 | -61.1% | |
| 31 | -70.2% | |
| 32 | -79.4% |
