Mac Jones and the New England Patriots will travel to Buffalo on a cold, rainy and windy night to take on the Bills on Monday Night Football.
Winds could approach as high as 47 miles per hour. The forecast also says the temperature will be in the mid-20s by game-time.
Roughly 55% of NFL games played in winds 10 mph or higher have gone under since 2003, according to Action Labs.
Already, the total has plummeted to 41 from its opening mark of 44.
These factors have affected Mac Jones' player props immensely.
Below is a list of his player props for Monday Night Football. The sportsbook offering the best value is in parentheses.
Mac Jones Player Props
- Passing yards over: 198.5, -115 (BetMGM, DraftKings)
- Passing yards under: 201.5, -115 (FanDuel)
- Passing touchdowns over: 1.5, +170 (DraftKings)
- Passing touchdowns under: 1.5, -194 (FanDuel)
- Interceptions over: 0.5, +100 (DraftKings)
- Interceptions under: 0.5, -114 (FanDuel, BetRivers)
- Pass attempts over: 30.5, -103 (BetRivers)
- Pass attempts under: 29.5, -104 (FanDuel)
- Pass completions over: 19.5, -110 (DraftKings, BetMGM)
- Pass completions under: 19.5, -103 (BetRivers)
These are among the lowest prop numbers since Jones and the Patriots started a six-game winning streak in October. That's due in large part to the aforementioned weather conditions.
While Jones has superseded his passing yards prop in seven of his last nine games — and despite the fact that 198.5 is an insanely low benchmark — the wind is going to be such a big factor in this contest that it's not worth the wager. Jones' arm strength will be a problem in these gusts.
Also, the Bills have the best passing defense in the NFL.
The same principle applies for his pass completion and pass attempt props. The Patriots simply won't drop back as often as they have of late. And even without the weather in mind, this pass attempt prop is obscenely high based on historical precedent. Jones has attempted more than 30.5 passes in just four of his last nine games.
If you're bullish on Jones tonight, the passing touchdown prop is probably the way to go. It's by far the most volatile prop on the list, but you're getting even money on a bet that doesn't require Jones to put up consistent numbers throughout this game.
