The New England Patriots will look to win their fifth straight game when they travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Thursday Night Football.
Patriots quarterback Mac Jones has been balling out, and bettors are hoping that continues.
The Patriots have had the best offense in football over the past month, according to Pro Football Focus.
Over that four-week period, the rookie QB has averaged roughly 215 passing yards per game with six touchdowns and just one pick.
The Patriots have won each of their four games with an average margin of victory of 25 points.
The 2020 Heisman Trophy bronze medalist's stats since mid-October are better than his predecessor Tom Brady's over the same window.
Brady has averaged 275 passing yards per game but with an average of more than a pick a game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have also lost two straight to the New Orleans Saints and the Washington Football Team.
The Falcons, meanwhile, have been a terrible team this season, but still — somehow — have a long shot chance to limp their way into the playoffs.
They enter Week 11 with a record of 4-5 and +450 odds to make the playoffs, according to DraftKings.
That's despite an offense that ranks No. 29 overall, according to Football Outsiders, and a defense ranks 31st in the NFL.
This is a very, very bad team.
And the public seems to be riding that sentiment, too. About 85% of the total money is on the Patriots to cover at -6.5.
Roughly 84% of the money is on the Patriots to win outright at -275.
Bettors also love these player prop bets that involve Mac Jones.
Patriots vs. Falcons Most Popular NFL Player Props
- Mac Jones to throw for more than 251.5 yards (-115)
- Mac Jones to throw for more than 1.5 touchdowns (-140)
- Hunter Henry to score a touchdown at any point (+120)
Data and odds are according to PointsBet.
Jones has thrown for more than 251.5 yards in just four of his 10 career starts and hasn't done so since Week 7 against the New York Jets.
The Jets are the worst pass defense in the NFL. He's also fulfilled this player prop against the Bucs (12th against the pass), Saints (13th) and Dolphins (17th).
The Falcons are comparable to the Jets against the pass, though. Atlanta is 30th in the the league against throws.
This one is worth a sprinkle on account of how bad the Falcons' defense is — and how Jones has been playing the last four weeks.
Jones has fulfilled the second-most wagered (over 1.5 touchdown passes) on prop for Thursday in four out of his 10 career games.
This prop is harder to empirically analyze due to the variability involved. With the extra -140 juice on this one, too, I'd defer to the passing yard prop if you're bullish on Mac Jones.
As for Hunter Henry's player prop, he's fulfilled that bet in six of his 10 career games with the Patriots.
That 60% rate implies odds of about -150.
Jones certainly looks for Henry in the red zone. This bet might be worth a smaller sprinkle if you're confident the Patriots pour it on tonight.
