Matt Corral NFL Draft Profile
Matt Corral NFL Draft Projections
A top-six quarterback in the 2018 class, Matt Corral was heavily recruited by the SEC and Pac-12, notably earning scholarship offers from Alabama and USC, but he settled on Ole Miss, where he was drawn to head coach Matt Luke's offense.
As a general rule, if you're a quarterback and you can play for a coach with two first names, you do it.
After redshirting behind senior Jordan Ta'amu in 2018, Corral opened the 2019 season as the starter, but he missed a couple of games in the middle of the year due to injury, and when he returned, he was forced to split snaps with backup dual-threat quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, who largely outplayed him as the team limped to a 4-8 finish in Luke's final season with Mississippi.
Under new head coach Lane Kiffin, Corral beat out Rhys Plumlee for the starting job in 2020, and in Kiffin's high-scoring offense (39.2 points per game, No. 14 nationally), Corral broke out with one of the best passing campaigns in the country (10.1 adjusted yards per attempt, No. 6 in Power Five).
With a similar — or maybe even better? — performance in 2021, Corral could be one of the top quarterbacks selected in the 2022 draft.
- 2022 NFL Mock Draft: N/A
- 2022 Position Big Board: No. 10 QB
- 2022 NFL Draft Big Board: No. 46 Overall
- 2021 Devy Fantasy Rankings: No. 11 QB, No. 63 Overall
Matt Corral Scouting Report
Strengths
- Natural throwing talent.
- Accurate to all areas of the field.
- Aggressive in attacking defenses deep.
- Middling athleticism (4.80 40-yard dash at 196 pounds as a recruit).
Weaknesses
- Undersized (6-foot-1, 205 pounds).
- Stat-inflating offensive system.
- Gunslinging mentality that results in turnovers (14 interceptions in 10 games last year).
- Without No. 1 receiver Elijah Moore (NFL) in 2021.
Matt Corral Stats
Passing Production
- 2020 (10 games): 326-3,337-29-14 passing | 70.9% completion rate
- 2019 (10 games): 178-1,362-6-3 passing | 59.0% completion rate
- 2018 (4 games): 22-239-2-1 passing | 72.7% completion rate
Rushing Production
- 2020 (10 games): 112-506-4 rushing | 4.5 yards per carry
- 2019 (10 games): 57-135-1 rushing | 2.4 yards per carry
- 2018 (4 games): 13-83-2 rushing | 6.4 yards per carry
*Includes Sacks
Matt Corral & Ole Miss Betting Odds
Below are the best odds for various Matt Corral and Mississippi betting markets as of May 28, 2021. Find reviews of the best online sportsbooks here.
- Matt Corral to Be No. 1 Pick in 2022 Draft: N/A
- Matt Corral to Win Heisman Trophy: +3300 at bet365
- Ole Miss to Win National Championship: +15000 at William Hill
- Ole Miss to Win Southeastern Conference: +3000 at FanDuel
- Ole Miss to Win SEC West Division: +1200 at DraftKings
- Ole Miss Win Total, Over 7.5: -139 at DraftKings
- Ole Miss Win Total, Under 7.5: +110 at PointsBet
Matt Corral & Ole Miss Market Analysis
Given what has happened with Corral's odds in the Heisman Trophy market, it's weird that he has no posted odds to be the No. 1 pick.
Corral is a good player: He's the No. 6 returning quarterback in college football (per Pro Football Focus).
Highest % of on-target/accurate passes on throws of 10+ air yards among returning FBS QBs, per @PFF:
🔸 Sam Howell, UNC — 55%
🔸 Matt Corral, Ole Miss — 55%
🔸 Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma — 54%— Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle) May 27, 2021
In March, Corral was +5000 in the Heisman market. Now, the best number I can find is +3300, but he's +2000 to +3000 at most sportsbooks, where only a handful of players have shorter odds to win the award.
Corral is very much live as a Heisman candidate.
Since we all are in agreement that Matt Corral (PFF's 15th highest graded QB this year) is going to win the Heisman next year, I thought I'd get the hype train going with a breakdown of this beautiful deep throw where he manipulates the defense with his eyes and shoulders: pic.twitter.com/zS6nnGHSob
— seth galina (@pff_seth) December 2, 2020
Corral isn't likely to go No. 1, but if he wins the Heisman, he will very much be a Baker Mayfield-esque option as the top overall pick in 2022. Corral is small for the position, but in Kiffin's offense, he could put up huge numbers in 2021, and he's good enough as a runner not to be viewed as a Mac Jones-like pocket-only passer.
Look at the past 10 quarterbacks to win the Heisman.
- Sam Bradford (2008): 2010 No. 1 pick
- Cam Newton (2010): 2011 No. 1 pick
- Robert Griffin III (2011): 2012 No. 2 pick
- Johnny Manziel (2012): 2014 No. 22 pick
- Jameis Winston (2013): 2015 No. 1 pick
- Marcus Mariota (2014): 2015 No. 2 pick
- Lamar Jackson (2016): 2018 No. 32 pick
- Baker Mayfield (2017): 2018 No. 1 pick
- Kyler Murray (2018): 2019 No. 1 pick
- Joe Burrow (2019): 2020 No. 1 pick
Six of them have gone on to be selected at the top of the draft, and two more went No. 2.
If books post No. 1 odds for Corral before the season, I will be very curious to see what they are.
I don't have a strong lean on Ole Miss either way, but if you are bullish on Corral, then you might want to look at the Rebels to win the national title at +15000.
On the negative side: In his college football win total projections, Collin Wilson has Mississippi slated for 7.35 wins, so there's some value on the win total under at plus money.
On the plus side: Mississippi has the highest returning production in the SEC and avoids matchups with Georgia and Florida (per Pete Ruden). If Corral improves upon his 2020 season and the Rebels win the SEC with a couple of lucky breaks, it's not hard to imagine them winning a national title.
Matthew Freedman is 1,051-849-37 (+92.6 units) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
