Betting Odds: Memphis Express at Atlanta Legends
- Spread: Atlanta -1.5
- Over/Under: 38.5
- Time: 4 p.m. ET on Sunday
- TV: CBS Sports Network
Betting market: The Legends are small favorites in a battle between two teams that have a remarkably more positive outlook after their respective changes under center. The 38.5-point total is the second-highest of Week 5.
Week 4 Takeaways
Memphis' 26-23 Win Over San Diego
- The Zach Mettenberger era is off to an exhilarating start. The former LSU signal caller has completed 27-of-37 (73%) passes for 294 yards (8.0 Y/A) with three touchdowns and zero interceptions in six quarters of action. The Express have utilized the league's most run-heavy offense, but Mettenberger has a position-high 90.3% adjusted-completion rate (Pro Football Focus).
- Zac Stacy (65% snap rate) remains the Express' undisputed lead back, although his 39 scoreless-yards on 18 carries left much to be desired. Stacy has 12, 18, 14 and 18 rushes in four games, but he'll face enhanced competition from Sherman Badie and Terrence Magee if he doesn't manage to get back on track.
- Memphis utilized Reece Horn (94% snap rate), Dontez Byrd (82%) and Alton Howard (73%) in starting 3-WR sets last week at the expense of Devin Lucien (40%) and Gerrard Sheppard (13%).
Atlanta's 14-11 Win Over Arizona
- The Matt Simms era is over, as former Georgia star quarterback Aaron Murray came off the bench and completed 20-of-33 (61%) passes for 254 yards (7.7 Y/A) to complement his 54 scoreless-yards on the ground. Murray's ability to dice up the Hotshots with downfield throws outside the numbers was particularly impressive.
.@TheAAF might just have eight competitive teams if Aaron Murray can keep balling for Atlanta pic.twitter.com/CFsGGMkiWj
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 5, 2019
- Backfield touches will continue to be scarce as long as Atlanta continues to field by far the league's most pass-happy offense. The loss of Akrum Wadley (knee, IR) means we'll likely see a three-back committee featuring Tarean Folston (39% snap rate), Denard Robinson (28%), Brandon Radcliff (27%) and a pinch of Lawrence Pittman (7%). Folston led the way with seven targets last week.
- Tight end Keith Towbridge (93% snap rate) is a focal point of the Legends offense. Wide receivers Ervin Philips (53%) and Seantavius Jones (50%) appear locked in as the team's "starters," but they've largely utilized a committee with James Quick (36%), Justin Thomas (36%), Bug Howard (36%), Malachi Jones (31%) and Montay Crockett (31%) also involved.
Which team is healthier? Memphis
The Express are thought to be near 100% healthy, although they signed running back Daryl Virgies and waived presumed preseason starting wide receiver Fabian Guerra.
The Legends have several more question marks to answer.
Running backs Akrum Wadley (knee, IR) and Lawrence Pittman (ankle) are banged up, while it's unclear if Matt Simms (finger) was benched because of injury, performance or both.
The most important defender to monitor is stud safety Ed Reynolds (groin), who has made a habit of limiting opponent's big plays all season.
Atlanta Legends safety Ed Reynolds is a #baller
-Tied for fifth among all defenders in both tackles (23) and pass breakups (3)
-Has allowed 22-scoreless yards on nine targets (PFF) pic.twitter.com/qExs2l1ywT— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 4, 2019
Key matchup: Memphis' Pass Offense vs. Atlanta's Secondary
The potential absence of Reynolds wouldn't help a Legends defense that has allowed a league-high 25.8 points per game. They've already struggled to stop the run, so enhanced incompetence against the pass could be the unit's worst case scenario against the Express' suddenly competent passing game.
Six quarter sample size be damned: Zach Mettenberger has been the second-best quarterback in the AAF this season.
- Yards per attempt: 7.9 (2nd)
- Touchdowns: 3 (tied for 3rd)
- Completion rate: 73% (1st)
- PFF Grade: 80.4 (2nd)
- Quarterback Rating: 123 (1st)
DFS edge: Memphis WRs
Finding high-usage DFS options at cheaper salaries will help us pay up for the slate's $7,000-plus darlings. Memphis appears to have a few viable options to do just that between Alton "Pig" Howard and Dontez Byrd.
Notable $5K-or-cheaper AAF DFS WRs that played at least 70% of their offense's snaps in Week 4:
L'Damian Washington ($4,600 – 91%)
Dontez Byrd ($4,000 – 82%)
Brian Brown ($4,500 – 82%)
De'Mornay Pierson-El ($5,000 – 79%)
Freddie Martino ($3,700 – 75%)
Alton Howard ($4,600 – 73%)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 6, 2019
It's also certainly possible to stack Mettenberger with each of Howard, Byrd and Reece Horn at $5,200.
Bet to watch: Memphis moneyline
Vegas can keep its point and a half. I'll take the team with the better quarterback, offense and defense to win outright (even on the road).
