I have a confession to make before making my Bills vs. Dolphins pick. It is neither groundbreaking nor unique.
I love the Buffalo Bills.
I like the Bills as a team and it's sacrilegious to actually root for them as a Jets fan, but I really love them as a squad built for the playoffs and Super Bowl contenders. Sportsbooks rate Buffalo highly, as well, which is clear based on the Bills vs. Dolphins odds.
This continues to be an emotional ride for the Bills. The updates since Damar Hamlin entered the hospital have been miraculously positive and given the team strength. We're all Bills fans now in a way and always rooting for No. 3.
After dropping two straight games to the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings, the Bills rattled off seven straight wins, and started to buck their trend of not covering larger spreads with 22- and 12-point wins over the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots. They're getting hot at the right time, and I really only see an awesome neutral-site game against the Kansas City Chiefs as their largest barrier to the Lombardi trophy.
The Miami Dolphins, on the other hand, have had the opposite trajectory. It all stems from their quarterback situation, as Tua Tagovailoa still hasn't been cleared from concussion protocol. The Dolphins and the NFL have to be concerned about his long-term health at this point, which will certainly supersede any playoff game.
Here's a look at the Bills vs. Dolphins odds, along with my breakdown of how the teams matchup and my betting pick for Sunday's Wild Card Round game.
Bills vs. Dolphins Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -118 | 44.5 -106o / -114u | -950 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -104 | 44.5 -106o / -114u | +640 |
Bills vs. Dolphins Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bills and Dolphins match up statistically:
Bills vs. Dolphins DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 7 | 4 | |
| Pass DVOA | 4 | 9 | |
| Rush DVOA | 16 | 3 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 2 | 15 | |
| Pass DVOA | 2 | 25 | |
| Rush DVOA | 11 | 4 | |
The Bills opened as 10.5-point favorites, which somehow dropped to 9.5 earlier in the week on what must have been speculation about Tagovailoa's status. Bettors quickly bought that number, but the spread shot up to 13.5 once he was officially ruled out. (I really wish I jumped on Buffalo at 10.5, that number sounds fantastic right now.)
These numbers are incredibly interesting. With Tagovailoa at the helm, the Bills were 4.5- and 7-point favorites on the road and home, respectively. I had Buffalo favored by more in each matchup, but the jump to 9.5 or 10.5 could seem too high for some casual bettors.
Given the recent trends for each team, getting to 10.5 is actually fairly straightforward. Even with Tagovailoa, I would have had a slight lean to the Bills numerically.
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The Bills have soared and solidified themselves as the best team in the NFL, according to DVOA. Those losses to the Jets and Vikings seem like a lifetime ago, and the Josh Allen-led team is officially a juggernaut.
It's no mystery that their high-powered offense is borderline unstoppable, but the more surprising unit to me is their defense — I wrote about this in both their games against the Jets in Week 9 and Week 14. The Bills actually have the fourth-ranked defense, according to Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the ball, I'm actually surprised to see the Dolphins have the fourth-best run defense, but I don't see that mattering much. Buffalo should have its way on offense, as it was able to destroy New England's third-ranked unit just last week and will continue bulldozing.
Miami's offense is the biggest variable. Once again, Skylar Thompson gets the ball, and there is not a ton to be hopeful about given his performance this season. The Dolphins haven't looked good the last two weeks, and their performance over the second half of the season was in the bottom of the league in DVOA.
Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel will have to pull off a miracle, but it will truly have to be the luckiest series of plays, or the best coaching performance in history in order to win. This is setting up to be a rout, it's just a matter of how big.
Betting Picks
This spread isn't hugely different from what the market should be, but there are two factors I like about the Bills.
Buffalo is trending in the right direction after demolishing a healthy Patriots team to finish the regular season. Now, we get Thompson under center for the Dolphins on the road in a huge playoff game.
From a narrative standpoint, the Bills have lost to the Dolphins and played a tight one at home, so I'm sure nothing would make Buffalo happier than blowing them out in McDaniel's first playoff game.
I'm expecting the Bills to win 35-14 in an absolute beatdown. Maybe I'll turn it off at half and watch Break Point on Netflix.
Have fun this weekend and remember, just because it's the playoffs doesn't mean the wager needs to go up!
Pick: Bills -13.5 | Bet to 14 |
