Dolphins vs. Browns Prediction, Odds, Preview — Week 17 Picks

Dolphins vs. Browns Prediction, Odds, Preview — Week 17 Picks article feature image
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Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa (left) and Myles Garrett.

This article contains predictions for an old game.

The Dolphins (7-8) and Browns (3-12) face off in NFL Week 17 at 4:05 p.m. ET from Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, Ohio. The game will be broadcast on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+.

The latest Dolphins vs Browns odds have the Dolphins as -170 moneyline favorites and the Browns as +150 underdogs; the over/under is 32.5 points (-108o/ – 112u). The Dolphins are 3-point favorites over the Browns on the spread (-3; -115).

Let's get into my Dolphins vs Browns predictions and picks — plus the latest odds, betting trends, inactives (including Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, David Njoku and more) and weather forecast.


Dolphins vs. Browns Prediction

Against the Spread

I would lean toward Miami, but my efforts to fade the Browns led me in a different direction.

Over/Under

I'm fully fading the Browns offense with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center. He hasn't given me any reasons to believe he's a legitimate NFL quarterback, and the potential for rain in the forecast gives me even more reason to believe that Cleveland will not be able to put up many points.

My Pick: Browns Team Total Under 16.5

Dolphins vs. Browns Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Best Bet

Dolphins Logo
Sunday, Dec. 29
4:05 p.m. EST
CBS
Browns Logo
Dolphins Odds
SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
-3
-115
32.5
-108o / -112u
-170
Browns Odds
SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
+3
-105
32.5
-108o / -112u
+142
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.
DraftKings Logo
  • Dolphins vs. Browns spread: Dolphins -3 (-115), Browns +3 (-105)
  • Dolphins vs. Browns over/under: 32.5 (-108o / -112u)
  • Dolphins vs. Browns moneyline: Dolphins -170, Browns +142
  • Dolphins vs. Browns pick: Browns Team Total Under 16.5

MyDolphins vs. Browns best bet is on Cleveland's team total. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.


Dolphins vs. Browns Week 17 Preview & Prediction

This is a full fade of Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the Browns’ starting quarterback. He’s preparing to start the game despite suffering a calf injury last week.

Jameis Winston was limited with a shoulder injury in practice this week. I’d wait to make sure he is out because he actually has upside, so I wouldn’t bet this if he starts instead of Thompson-Robinson.

Overall, Thompson-Robinson might be the worst quarterback in the NFL.

On passes 15 or more yards down the field, Thompson-Robinson is 0-for-11 with three interceptions. He ranks 55th of 55 quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE among QBs with at least 200 regular-season snaps since the start of last season. Some of the names ahead of him: Drew Lock, Cooper Rush, Easton Stick, Zach Wilson and Bailey Zappe.

The Dolphins defense ranks 15th in DVOA over its last six games, including eighth against the run. If Cleveland can’t run the ball, I don’t see how it’s going to be able to consistently score.

Thompson-Robinson has started four games in the NFL — the Browns average 8.5 points in those outings. Cleveland has scored three, 13, 12 and six points when the former UCLA man is under center.

The Browns' team total is way too high, so I’m all over the under. I’d also recommend considering under 10.5 at +300 and even under 6.5 at +600.

My Pick: Browns Team Total Under 16.5


Dolphins vs. Browns Betting Trends

Dolphins vs. Browns Inactives

Dolphins Injuries

  • QB Tua Tagovailoa
  • WR Jaylen Waddle
  • LB Anthony Walker
  • CB Nik Needham
  • LB Mohamed Komara
  • OL Andrew Meyer
  • WR Erik Ezukanma

Browns Inactives

  • QB Jameis Winston
  • WR Cedric Tillman
  • TE David Njoku
  • CB Chigozie Anusiem
  • DE Ogbo Okoronkwo

Dolphins vs. Browns Weather Forecast

Get the latest coverage on NFL Weather.
About the Author
Brandon Anderson is a staff writer at the Action Network, specializing in NFL and NBA coverage. He provides weekly NFL power rankings and picks for every game, as well as contributing to NBA analysis, regularly appearing on the BUCKETS Podcast. With a deep background in sports betting and fantasy football, Brandon is known for spotting long-shot futures and writing for various outlets like Sports Illustrated, BetMGM, and more before joining the Action Network.

Follow Brandon Anderson @wheatonbrando on Twitter/X.

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