The Miami Dolphins (5-6) and Green Bay Packers (8-3) will face off on NFL Thanksgiving. Kickoff is set for in 8:20 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The game will be broadcast live on NBC.
The Packers are favored by 3.5 points with the game total set at 48 points scored. The Packers are -180 favorites to win outright, while the Dolphins are +150 to pull off the upset.
The Dolphins won 34-15 last week over the Patriots for their third straight win. Tua Tagovailoa threw 4 touchdowns last week and has the Miami offense rolling ahead of this game. The Packers won 38-10 over the 49ers last week. Jordan Love threw 2 touchdowns, but Josh Jacobs of the star with 3 rushing TDs.
Let's get into my Packers vs Dolphins predictions and NFL picks.
Dolphins vs. Packers Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 48 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 48 -110o / -110u | -180 |
- Dolphins vs. Packers spread: Packers -3
- Dolphins vs. Packers over/under: 48 points scored
- Dolphins vs. Packers moneyline: Packers -180, Dolphins +150
- Dolphins vs. Packers prediction: Under 48 (-110)
MyDolphins vs. Packers pick is on the under. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
I'm aligned with the market on the spread for this game.
Moneyline
I have no interest in betting either team's moneyline.
Over/Under
Tua Tagovailoa has famously struggled in cold weather, and the Packers defense is a big step up in competition for Miami. Combined with the relatively slow pace and methodical nature of both teams, that's enough for me to take the under.
I would play the under down to 47, but that's a key number for totals so be sure to hop on 47.5 or 48 if you can.
My Pick: Under 48 (-110)
Dolphins vs. Packers NFL Thanksgiving Preview
A few weeks ago, the late game on Thanksgiving looked to be fairly unimpactful. Miami had fallen all the way to 2-6, and it looked like a lost season. Things have changed quick, with the Dolphins winning three straight since getting Tua Tagovailoa back.
That's turned this into an important game between a team one spot out of the AFC playoffs, and another hanging onto the sixth seed in the NFC.
The Packers have been playing their typical ball-control football this season. They rank 30th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and 29th in pace of play, with occasional deep shots mixed in when opposing defenses get complacent.
Quarterback Jordan Love is tied for the second deepest average depth of target (aDOT) in the NFL this season, keeping Green Bay in the top 10 in scoring despite its pace of play. The Packers have also found a run game, with Josh Jacobs third in the NFL in rushing yards. The bulk of their success should come on the ground, with Miami ranking 26th in DVOA against the run.
On the Miami side of the ball, the offense is predicated on Tagovailoa getting the ball out quick. Roughly 50% of his targets since coming back have been to backs and tight ends, as Miami dinks and dunks its way down the field.
That should mean some extended drives for the Dolphins, with the key to his game being turning those drives into touchdowns instead of field goals. They've been able to do that on their current win streak, averaging more than 30 points per game.
However, those games all came against bottom-10 defenses by DVOA. Two were at home in Miami, and one was in Los Angeles. This game is at Lambeau, where temperatures are expected to be below freezing, with wind chill around 20 degrees.
My Pick: Under 48 (-110)
Packers vs Dolphins Betting Trends
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