The Miami Dolphins (6-7) and Houston Texans (8-5) will face off in NFL Week 15. Kickoff is set for in 1:00 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on CBS.
The Texans are favored by 3 points with the game total set at 46.5 points scored. The Texans are -150 favorites to win outright, while the Dolphins are +125 to pull off the upset.
The Dolphins won 32-26 last week over the Jets and have won four of their last five games. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 331 yards and two touchdowns. The Texans are coming off their bye week and are comfortably in first place in the AFC South.
Let's get into my Texans vs Dolphins predictions and NFL picks.
Dolphins vs. Texans Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
- Dolphins vs. Texans spread: Texans -3 (-105)
- Dolphins vs. Texans over/under: 46.5 points scored
- Dolphins vs. Texans moneyline: Texans -150, Dolphins +125
- Dolphins vs. Texans best bet: Texans 1H -1 (-110)
MyDolphins vs. Texans best bet is on Houston to cover the first-half spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
I'm backing the Texans, but only against the first-half spread.
Houston's splits between the first and second halves are drastic, and it's 11-2 against the first-half spread this season.
Moneyline
I'm not betting either team's moneyline.
My Pick: Texans 1H -1 (-110)
Dolphins vs. Texans NFL Week 15 Preview
I have these teams rated closely, almost equals, so this is less about the matchup and more about the play and spot.
The Texans offense has been disappointing this season, but offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik’s early game scripts are generally pretty good. The Texans offense ranks 15th in DVOA in the first half, but that drops to 26th in the second half.
The bye week will only enhance that for Houston.
I expect the Texans offense will come out and look good. Also, the Dolphins defense ranks in the bottom five in the NFL on first down.
The standout unit in this game is the Texans defense. Having an extra week to prepare for Mike McDaniel will be good for DeMeco Ryans, who will be especially familiar with McDaniel from their overlapping time with the 49ers from 2017-2021.
Azeez Al-Shaair’s suspension isn’t great, but I trust that Ryans will find answers for this Dolphins offense, which is a bottom-five first-half unit this season, according to DVOA.
Home favorites of seven or fewer points coming off a bye are 83-63-22 against the first-half spread. Houston is 11-2 against the first-half spread, while Miami is 5-8.
Also of note: The Texans are 2-11 against the spread in the second half, which is why I’m avoiding backing them after halftime.
I still need to see Tua Tagovailoa beat a great defense this season in a playoff-like setting, so I’m going to fade him early here and back the Texans to lead at halftime.
My Pick: Texans 1H -1 (-110)
Texans vs Dolphins Betting Trends
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