The Miami Dolphins (2-3) and Indianapolis Colts (3-3) will kick off NFL Week 7's Sunday afternoon slate. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on FOX. The game can be streamed live on YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
The Colts are consensus 3-point favorites over the Dolphins on the spread (Colts -3), with the over/under currently at 43 points. Indianapolis is -155 on the moneyline to win outright, while Miami is +130 to pull off the upset.
The Colts won 20-17 over the Titans last week. Joe Flacco started and threw 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, but Anthony Richardson will start if he's healthy. The Dolphins are coming off of their bye week. Tyler Huntley is expected to start under center, although Tua Tagovailoa isn't far from returning.
Let's get into my Dolphins vs. Colts predictions and my NFL picks for Sunday Week 7.
Dolphins vs. Colts Prediction
- My pick: Dolphins +3
My Colts vs. Dolphins best bet is on the underdog 'Fins to cover the spread. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Dolphins vs. Colts Odds
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 43 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 43 -110o / -110u | -155 |
- Dolphins vs. Colts spread: Colts -3
- Dolphins vs. Colts over/under: 43 points
- Dolphins vs. Colts moneyline: Colts -155, Dolphins +130
- Dolphins vs. Colts best bet: Dolphins +3
Spread
I'll take the three points and bet on the Dolphins. There are many trends that indicate this is a spot to back Miami and fade Indianapolis.
Moneyline
While I'm taking the points with Miami, I'm not going to bet the moneyline.
All six Colts games this season have been decided by one score, with the biggest margin of victory coming in Week 2 when they lost 16-10 to the Packers. Indianapolis’ wins have been by five, three and three points. With that, I’m happy to take the field goal and not bet the Miami moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm not betting either side of this game total.
My pick: Dolphins +3
Dolphins vs. Colts Betting Trends to Know
- 55% of bets and 65% of the money are on the Colts to cover the spread.
- 72% of bets and 59% of the money are on the over.
- 79% of bets and 84% of the money on the moneyline are on the Colts.
Dolphins vs. Colts Start Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Lucas Oil Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Oct. 20 |
| Kickoff Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX / YouTube TV |
Colts vs. Dolphins is scheduled for a 1 p.m. ET start time, live from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Sunday, Oct. 20. The game is live on FOX and streaming on YouTube TV.
Dolphins vs. Colts NFL Week 7 Preview
This is a play purely based on systems and trends. The Dolphins can’t possibly be as bad as they looked before their bye week, and I trust that they won’t look as bad after a week off. Mike McDaniel is a good head coach, and Miami has a matchup against a Colts team with a lot of injuries. Also, Indianapolis might be starting its inferior starting quarterback.
This was Dolphins +3.5 earlier in the week, and I especially liked it there for that extra one-half point. Miami +3, though, is still worth a look.
Underdogs that have scored 16 or fewer points in three straight games are 36-21-1 (63%) against the spread (ATS) since 2019. Without Tua Tagovailoa, Miami has definitely fit that trend.
Underdogs that are covering at a rate between 0-20% in Week 6 or later are 130-82-5 (61%) ATS. When that ‘dog’s opponent is covering at a rate between 60-100%, the trend increases to 59-30-2 (66%). Let’s make it when the opponent is covering 75% or more of the time. The rate becomes 27-10-1 (73%).
Want to get more specific? Underdogs that are facing a team covering at a rate between 80-99% in Weeks 6 or 7 have a 52-23-1 (69%) ATS rate.
While Tagovailoa isn’t slated to return this week, we’re betting that the Dolphins can’t get any worse and that the Colts are unlikely to continue covering at their current rate. I was able to grab this at Dolphins +3.5 early in the week, but I'd still recommend it as long as we're getting a field goal.
Pick: Dolphins +3
NFL Weather
