Chiefs vs Dolphins Predictions
NFL Wild Card Picks
I have three bets for my Chiefs vs Dolphins predictions and NFL Wild Card Picks. The latest Chiefs vs Dolphins odds have the Chiefs as 4.5-point favorites with a game total of 43.5 total points.
The forecasted kickoff temperature for the AFC Wild Card game between Miami and Kansas City is zero degrees, with wind chills deep into the negatives. Given the expected winds between 10-20 mph, the offensive output will be considerably affected. The Dolphins enter this game at the end of a mini-gauntlet run of their own following a last-second win against the Cowboys and consecutive losses to the Ravens and Bills that cost them the AFC East.
Instead of a win against Buffalo that would have locked up the No. 2 seed, Miami's defense played 73 plays on Sunday, picked up key injuries, lost home-field advantage and now has to travel on a short week. Kansas City has a major advantage from a health, rest and travel perspective after the Chiefs rested most of their key players in Week 18 against the Chargers.
Let's break down my NFL Wild Card Picks for Saturday night.
Chiefs vs Dolphins Predictions
Pick: Chiefs Moneyline (-200 or better) |
Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 Rush Yards |
Tua Tagovailoa Under 233.5 Pass Yards |
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Chiefs vs Dolphins Odds
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Line | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Line | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
Chiefs vs Dolphins Picks
The Dolphins turned to the veteran free-agent market to try to find any semblance of a pass rush after they weren't able to get near Josh Allen following all of the injuries last week. Miami was already without Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips due to prior season-ending injuries, and then they lost Andrew Van Ginkel, Jerome Baker and Cameron Goode on Sunday.
Miami has since added Justin Houston and Bruce Irvin, but there's a reason both were free agents this far into the season. Houston (34) and Irvin (37) won't expose one of the most underrated weaknesses for the Chiefs: their tackles. Kansas City has had major issues protecting Patrick Mahomes this year, but the Dolphins total lack of a pass rush leaves defensive coordinator Vic Fangio without a clear answer.
He could choose to blitz Mahomes more, but that's been a poor strategy for most defensive coordinators in the past. Mahomes averages 7.4 yards per attempt against the blitz this season, and 6.9 yards per attempt when not blitzed.
The key Dolphins stat that most have used to discredit their playoff credentials is their record against fellow playoff teams. Miami played Philadelphia, Buffalo twice, Kansas City, Baltimore and Dallas. They finished those six games 1-5 with a -91 point differential. The defense had real issues in every game. Philadelphia rolled to 31 points, Buffalo scored 43 in the first meeting and on Sunday the Bills had 26 first downs, 6.1 yards per play and 473 total yards. The Miami defense was on the field for a whopping 77 plays in high leverage and you have to wonder if there could be lingering fatigue as the depth is further tested from injuries.
Baltimore scored 56 and Dallas only got to 20 but fumbled on the one-yard line and still moved the ball at will despite offensive line and blocking issues. The Dolphins have faced the third-easiest schedule of opposing offenses by DVOA and have not fared well against quality offenses.
Tua Tagovailoa is also a first-time playoff quarterback, and their history of performance hasn't been positive. Quarterbacks making their first playoff start versus quarterbacks who have playoff experience are 17-35-1 ATS (32.7%) and 17-36 SU since 2002.
Chiefs vs Dolphins Picks | FanDuel
It was only one game against a bottom-five Cincinnati defense, but there were some encouraging signs for the Chiefs offense in their division-clinching win against the Bengals. The Chiefs managed seven yards per play and 373 total yards. They struggled badly on third downs and in the red zone, but it was the best early-down success numbers that Kansas City had in the second half of the season.
I’m not convinced the current version of Miami is anything better than a mediocre defense either. The Chiefs offense isn't going to be "fixed," but Mahomes also probably won't be as bad as he was at points of the second half, either.
Chiefs vs Dolphins Picks
There's been almost no market resistance on Kansas City movement all week long, and the state of the Miami defense is hard to adequately price on a short week. One area in which Kansas City is sure to go for its "break glass in case of emergency" offense is Mahomes rush yards. Mahomes has averaged 27.6 yards per playoff game on the ground, and that includes two games last playoffs against Jacksonville and Cincinnati with a bad ankle.
With the Dolphins also going to a more run-heavy approach against the flawed Kansas City run defense, and the Chiefs expected to do their best to exhibit ball control, the Tagovailoa pass yards are a bit too high at 233.5 yards. Tagovailoa was quite inconsistent in his play against quality defenses this season — including against the Chiefs in Germany.
I'd bet the Chiefs if the moneyline gets to -200 or cheaper, but if it doesn't, I'd focus on those two props for this AFC Wild Card clash.
Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 Rush Yards |
Tua Tagovailoa Under 233.5 Pass Yards |
Chiefs ML (-200 or better) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
